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What Happened The Last Time

You know the resale condo market is slowing down when the mainstream media starts writing articles telling us that it is. By the time the MSM gets on the train, it has already left the station and is well on its way to its destination. Reader of this blog and clients of mine have already known that the market has peaked and has been slowing for quite some time already.

On the pre-construction side however, it’s a different story. Buyers and agents are still lining up for the latest and greatest pre-construction launches all over downtown (seems to be one just about every week). Demand is still far outstripping supply with projects like FIVE condos supposedly receiving several hundred worksheets in the first few hours post-launch, and other projects like The Berczy and King Edward Hotel practically selling out overnight.

This is all eerily similar to the pattern we saw the last time the market slowed down. The resale market started to show signs of cracking around June/July 2008, but the pre-construction market kept humming along until the fall of ‘08 when it too was affected. But prices if you recall, did not come down in pre-construction until around the spring of ‘09 when everyone was ‘relaunching’ their projects with reduced pricing and finally the momentum came back.

The resale market is much more sensitive to changes in the overall housing market than the pre-construction side. Individual sellers are much more inclined to reduce prices compared to slow moving developers who don’t do anything without talking about it for at least a month or two. The pre-construction market will slow this year, but developers will probably not notice it until the Fall.

Does this mean it is a bad time to buy pre-construction? Not necessarily. I believe there are good opportunities to buy in any market, you just have to know how to evaluate the opportunities and make smart buying decisions. One project that is a still a great buy for me remains DNA3. Questions or comments? Contact me.

The Market Has Peaked, So Now What?

So the market has peaked (probably). Now what do you do? Well, first thing to remember is that most people won’t realize the market has peaked for about 3 months so if you are reading this you are way ahead of the curve. Secondly we are not talking about a market crash, and quite possibly we may not even see prices start to fall till Q3 or Q4 of this year. Making predictions on exactly how much prices will rise or fall is fool’s game, so I won’t go there, but I could forsee a scenario with flat or slightly falling prices by the end of 2010. Depending on what your situation is, here are some quick thoughts moving forward:

For Buyers:

It’s already much better now than it was just 2 months ago. Inventory is up, some sellers are starting to get a grip on reality, and you actually have multiple properties to choose from. Things will continue to get better as inventory continues to rise along with interest rates which will increase supply and decrease demand at the same time. Don’t rush into anything. Now is not the time to pay higher for a property than the last guy did. Buy smart, buy for the long term.

For Sellers:

Understand that the market has changed. Price your property for what it is worth and don’t follow the “price it low for multiple offers” strategy. Remember that if you want to command top dollar in terms of selling price, your property must show better than all the other properties on the market – proper staging and marketing is vital. Better to list now than wait till Summer. There is still time to close before the HST kicks in July 1st. Want to talk about selling your condo? Contact me.

Investors:

Keep buying if the property makes sense and the neighbourhood has good long-term upside potential. Stop buying if you are hoping to flip for a quick profit or if you are over extended.

Questions or comments? Thinking about buying, selling, or investing and want the advice of a professional who understands the market? Contact me

Buy to Sell in a Buyer’s Market

While the title of this post may sound confusing at first, the meaning is simple: whenever you buy a condo, make sure it is a unit that would be easy to sell again in the future – even in a strong buyer’s market. This is advice I always tell my clients, especially investor clients. May seem like common sense, but it is worth exploring a little further.

Besides a brief 6-month window between October 2008 through April 2009, the Toronto market has basically been a seller’s market for the better part of the last decade. Anything sells in a seller’s market, and hopefully when it comes time for you to sell you reap the benefits of a strong seller’s market, but what if you sell and the market is slow? What if there are 10 listings for every buyer, instead of the other way around? Make sure you buy smart and buy a condo that will be easy to sell and sell quickly even in a buyer’s market.

Some more tips to consider when thinking about selling in a buyer’s market:

1. Always buy a property that a wide range of buyers would be interested in.
2. Avoid one-of-a-kind units. Cookie cutter condos are not always a bad thing when it comes to investment!
3. Be wary of units with special features like terraces, multiple parking spots, customized kitchens etc. Not all buyers appreciate these features and therefore they will not be willing to pay extra for them.
4. When in doubt, buy the smaller of two units. Smaller=Cheaper=More potential buyers
5. Go as high as possible. The 25th floor will sell before the 2nd floor in a slow market.

In a hot market like we are in, it is easy to lose sight of the fundamentals of real estate investing. Buyer’s often ’settle’ for a property that does not meet the above criteria just to get into the market. Don’t settle and always think about what if you had to sell during a buyer’s market.

Questions about buying investment condos in Toronto? Contact me directly or leave a comment here.

Pricing Starting to Favour Pre-Construction

Once upon a time in Toronto real estate, there was a rule  that investors followed religiously – you only buy a pre-construction condo if the price is lower than that of a comparable existing resale condo. If the price wasn’t lower than existing resale condos of similar quality in the immediate area, then it just didn’t make sense to buy. After all, why take on the risk of buying ‘from plans’ when you don’t know how long it will actually take to be delivered, what the final build quality will be like, and what additional surprise costs you may incur along the way.

When market really started to get hot sometime in mid-2007, and pre-construction condos became the thing everyone and their mom were investing in, this long-held rule was abandoned. Prices of pre-construction started to reach heights never seen in the resale market. $600 Per Square Foot was suddenly a normal rate for pre-builds, whereas resale prices were still hovering around $425 PSF.

Over the last six months, there has been a seismic shift in the resale market. Prices have escalated at about 2% per month since June 1. If you bought a condo on May 1st of this year anywhere downtown, it likely has appreciated about 12% in value. Congrats.

Prices have gone up so much and so quickly in the resale market that the value is now, incredibly, starting to once again favour pre-construction.  Resale prices in several of the ‘prime’ downtown buildings like College Park, The Hudson, The Met, 18 Yorkville, Mozo, are now routinely hitting the $550-$575 PSF range. One upper floor 1+den with parking unit at College Park recently sold for $660 PSF! With several pre-construction projects across the downtown still selling between $500-$550 PSF, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out where the best value for your investment dollar is and where it will be in the months ahead.

If you are interested in taking advantage of some hidden gems in the pre-construction market downtown, let’s talk.

5% Deposit Available at Liberty Market Lofts, Victory Condos, & M5V

This week I’m excited to announce an excellent investment/purchasing opportunity available exclusively for my clients at Liberty Market Lofts, Victory Condos, and M5V.

For a limited time, my clients have the ability to purchase select suites at these three highly successful downtown developments with only 5% total deposit. Normally the deposit structure would be 15% + 5% at occupancy.

The suites that qualify at Victory and Liberty Market Lofts are all the remaining 2 bedroom units. At M5V, the suites that qualify are all remaining units priced over $600K.

This offer is not available to the general public, and this offer is not available to general agents and brokers. This is a one-time perk that my clients can enjoy with these developments because I am a member of the “Platinum Agent” club for Lifetime Developments, BLVD Developments and TAS DesignBuild.

Please contact me asap if you are interested in purchasing a unit at one of these projects. This is a very limited and exclusive offer-don’t delay!

Couture: Special 1-day VIP Broker’s Event

Couture Condos by Monarch Developments will be holding a special 1-day only VIP Broker’s sales event on Wednesday (tomorrow). Please contact me if you are interested in purchasing a unit at Couture.

Couture still has some 1 bedrooms and 1 bedroom plus den units available, starting from around $273K. 2 bedrooms starting from about $342K. This is a good opportunity to pick up an investment unit or even a place to live in on the east side of downtown, just a few minutes walk to Yonge and Bloor.

Special for buyers on Wednesday August 26th ONLY:

• $10K off the purchase price for 1 bedrooms
• $15K off for 1+dens
• $20K off 2 bedrooms
• $30K off 2+dens
• PLUS, free laminate flooring upgrade in the bedrooms for all purchasers (normally only standard in living/dining areas)

Prices are in the low to mid $500s per square foot for most units (before any discounts or incentives are applied).

For more information contact me.

Toronto Resale Market Slows; New Developments to Follow?

Interesting article in today’s Globe and Mail about more anecdotal and factual evidence that the Toronto resale market is slowing down.

Agents are starting to see conditional offers more and more, negotiations are actually taking place, and sellers who price their property too high are getting a rude wake-up call to the new realities of the marketplace.

Gone are the heady days of 2007 when a seller could simply list their property at seemingly any price and they would usually be rewarded with an offer.

So what about the market for new condos? What is the market like today and what will it look like heading into the final quarter of 2008 and into 2009? I spend most of my time helping buyers enter into the pre-construction condo market in Toronto.

A new report from Urbanation, a research firm run by the folks behind Market Vision-a brokerage specializing and new developments-seems to suggest that new condos will be following the trend currently happening in the resale market.

“We’re expecting a slowdown in 2009,” said Jane Renwick, editor and vice-president of Urbanation, a condominium market research company.

“So we would say that we were at 22,000 [condo] sales at the end of 2007. We’re predicting 16,000 sales to round out this year. And we’re expecting sales to dip beyond that in 2009.”

Urbanation released a report yesterday about the Toronto condo market’s second quarter of 2008.

Following record condo sales in 2007, she said, the market is now back to 2005 and 2006 levels.

Anecdotal evidence, evidence on the ground from my own experiences and the experiences of my colleagues who also specialize in new condo developments, suggests that the market is currently still hot. People are still lining up for condos (overnight in many cases), and prices are still rising. However, there is a sentiment that slow times are ahead and smart buyers are proceeding with caution, not just jumping into any development that comes along. If you are looking to flip a condo and make a quick profit overnight, it is probably not the best time to buy.

If you ever have any questions about new condos or Toronto Real Estate, please give me a call or send me an email.

International Investors & Developers Have their Eyes on Canada

I came across an interesting post over at New Condos Online about how American developers should start aggressively pursuing Canadian buyers for their product due to the relatively strong Canadian economy and the (until very recently) high Canadian dollar.

This is very timely advice for American developers to consider. Most US Real Estate Markets are still following a downward slide. Prices are still falling, inventory is still massive with little signs of it changing in the near term. Canadian investors are beginning to wonder it things have peaked here in Canada and are starting to look elsewhere for better value and better long-term prospects for price appreciation.

While foreign developers are starting to consider Canadian buyers, foreign investors are still feeling quite bullish on the long-term prospects of condos in markets like Toronto. More and more international investors are looking at purchasing condos in Toronto as investment vehicles, or as temporary residences. Look at recent developments like Ice Condos or Aura. Anecdotal evidence suggests a substantial proportion of buyers in these landmark projects are from outside of Canada. Canada is considered a safe, secure, low-risk place to invest to many outside of our borders.

My own client list is increasingly becoming something of a United Nations. Just in the last year alone I have had new clients originating from the U.K., Dubai, Taiwan, Korea, India, China, and Bangladesh to name a few.

If you are interested in knowing more about investing in Canada and Toronto in particular, please contact me.