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Absorption Rates

I wanted to dig a little deeper for today’s blog post and take a look at absorption rates in various condos. Looking at Festival Tower got me thinking about this subject. Festival Tower has a plethora of units available for sale, but hardly anything is actually selling. The building is stunning. The amenities are amazing, and the film festival that just finished put this tower in the international spotlight for a full 2 weeks. The building has been fully registered and finished for a few months now. I am at a loss as to why units are not moving here. There was so much hype about this building for the last 5 years, and now that it is finally finished, no one is buying?

Let’s compare Festival Tower with other buildings downtown. I took a random sample of various buildings, all completed in the last 12 months. I tried to pick a few buildings to somewhat represent the whole spectrum of the downtown market from the lowest end to the highest end. Take a look at what I found:

Only 3 units have sold in the last 60 days at Festival Tower, and there are currently 42 units available for sale. At this rate, it would take 28 months to sell all available units! Similar story at The Ritz Carlton, where only 2 units have sold in the last 60 days and there are 30 units on the market (actually more since the developer has a few unsold that are not on MLS).

Compare this to a building like Parade in Cityplace, a known area for heavily investor-owned buildings. While there are a lot of units on the market in the building (36 currently), they are moving fast (18 sold in last 60 days)!

Obviously price point has a lot to do with this. There are far more buyers looking for condos in the $300K range than the $800K range. However, I am really starting to rethink the high-end of the market and wondering if there really is a market in this town for condos in the $800 per square foot and above price point.

You could possibly point to a building like Crystal Blu where the absorption rate is quite good and say there is a market but only in one area: Yorkville. One theory I have is people with money to burn on a condo will live in Yorkville, but anywhere else it’s not worth the premium to get a high-end unit.

The point of this blog post is really not to say I have an answer to this question about where are all the high-end buyers, but rather I would like to start a conversation with my readers and clients on the matter. So let me know your thoughts. Contact me or leave a comment.

Condo Sales and Prices Up in June

June’s sales figures were just released and wow, what a difference from the last two months! When comparing June 2011 with June 2010, sales are up BIG downtown and prices are up too. Remember that June 2010 was the last month before the HST kicked in, and many buyers and sellers were still scrambling to get in under the wire of July 1, 2010.

My commentary:

• The market is still a seller’s market. There are those who want to tell you that the market has been softening of late, but anyone who is ‘on the ground’ working the market will tell you it is not. 60% sale: list ratio on the east side (C08) is discouraging if you are a buyer.
• Inventory is still a problem. Downtown east had a big drop from last year in terms of units available for sale, just like the month of May showed. Why is no one selling in this town?
• Interesting the the median and average prices in downtown east (C08) and west (C01) are very similar. Is the gap between the east and west narrowing?

With no end in sight to the cheap money (i.e. low interest rates) in this country due to the still anemic U.S. economy and our strong Canadian dollar, I see little chance of a slow down in the market over the next 6 months. Agree? Disagree? I’d love to hear your thoughts. Please contact me or leave a comment.

Market Snapshot: May 2011

The sales statistics for the month of May are in from the Toronto Real Estate Board for the resale market. As usual, I am only concerned with looking at the downtown condo sales as the stats for a metro area of 5 million people tells us nothing really about the downtown condo market.

My observations for this month’s stats:

• Most interesting to me as always is the inventory level. There were 183 fewer condos available for sale downtown in May versus last year, or about 11% less inventory. Low levels of inventory is a constant problem in this city. Those who keep harping on about ‘they are building too many condos!’…obviously don’t read my blog.
• Prices are up marginally versus last year (both average and median prices)
• Sales:Active ratio is about 38% for downtown total, which statistically indicates a ‘balanced’ market (as usually defined by about 25-40% Sales:Active ratio). This may explain partially why some listings sell with multiple offers while others sit for 3 weeks or more without an offer.

Takeaways:

Buyers - You still need to act quickly and be ready to engage in a bidding war for the best listings. I don’t see this changing much over the next 3 months.

Sellers - If you price your property right and prepare your property for sale correctly, you can still acheive great results, but it’s no longer a market where you can just throw anything out there and expect it to sell for top dollar in a week or less.

Investors - Watch for those properties that have ‘slipped through the cracks’ with DOM (days on market) over 20. These sellers may start to believe their Realtors who tell them ‘the market must be changing!’ and you may be able to get some leeway with sellers.

Questions or comments? Contact me.

Market Snapshot March 2011

The above chart shows the latest data on downtown Toronto condo sales from the Toronto Real Estate board for March 2011 as it compares to March 2010. C01 is considered ‘downtown west’ and C08 is considered downtown east.

A few observations:

• Downtown west is always the most relevant data to look at when gauging the downtown condo market. The vast majority of sales downtown are in downtown west (C01). Downtown East (C08) is not great to look at on a month-to-month basis as sample sizes are quite small. It is quite common to see very different trends in downtown east versus downtown west (as is the case this month)
• Active listings are up, but so are sales and prices in Downtown west
• On average, prices have gone up about 6.6% since last year at this time in Downtown west
• The downtown west market once again outperforms the overall Toronto Real Estate market (where are you planning on investing this year?). Sales for GTA are DOWN 11%, and prices up 5%
• It’s still basically a seller’s market in both downtown east and west with the sales: listings ratio still hovering around 50%. Anecdotally, the number of ‘quality listings’ remains incredibly thin, while “investor” buildings have plenty of units available for sale.

I hope you find this information useful. Questions or comments on the market? Contact me or leave a comment below.

2011 Market Forecast From Remax Condos Plus

If December is the annual ‘year in review’ month, then January is ‘predictions’ month. My broker (aka The Big Boss Man) over at Remax Condos Plus, Jamie Johnston, has put out his 2011 forecast for the downtown condo market. Here it is below for your reading enjoyment. Of particular note: Jamie now believes that the pre-construction market is now nearly 100% investor-driven. Love to hear your thoughts on this:

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Tipping Point?

For the first time in 16 years, sales of new condominiums in Toronto were lower in the second quarter than they were in the first quarter. This, according to the latest stats in from Urbanation. So what? Well, real estate is highly cyclical (at least it used to be), and the busiest months of any given year are usually during the spring market (April-May-June).  This year we sold so many condos in the winter months (5415) that we couldn’t match that total in the spring (we only sold 4991). Does this represent a tipping point in the new condo market?

Readers of this blog will know that the resale market peaked back in late March/early April. And they will also know that I’ve been preaching that the new development market would do the same, but it would just take a few more months to do so. So things are playing out in a predictable fashion so far this year but we need to know how to understand this changing market and where it is going next.

There are basically two ways of interpreting this data. One is that sales were so incredibly (and unusually) high in the first quarter of this year that we had no where to go but down. The other is that this has never happened once in the last 15 years in our market – 15 years of a nearly continuous bull market – and so this must represent a fundamental change in our market. The truth is probably somewhere in between these two extremes.

I don’t see any cause for concern that the pre-build market is about to ‘crash’ or face any significant price reductions, however, I do see and hear more caution and less optimism in developer’s voices when I speak to them and they are no longer assuming anything they throw at the market will be absorbed. My personal opinion is that given the ongoing fluctuations in the global economy and the Bank of Canada’s bi-monthly statements which assure us they have no idea what is going on either, we are entering into what could be a prolonged season of uncertainty in our real estate market. Continue to invest smart and with a long-term outlook. Buying to flip is sooo 2007.

Want to discuss your investment options in this market? Contact me today.

Canadian Real Estate is Boring

A client of mine forwarded this very cool interactive flash-based chart from The Economist. It shows the house price index, actual house price movement for several countries over the past 20 years.  (The above is just an image of the actual chart. I have embedded the actual flash chart in my blog. Click ‘Continue Reading’ to try it.)

It is interesting to see how Canada’s house prices stack up against other countries over the last 20 years. The same old story holds true: since 1990, Canadian real estate has been very boring. Appreciating at very modest but steady rates compare to the huge ups and downs of several other countries. Our downturn we experienced last year was nothing compared to other countries. This is disappointing news to the doomsayers who fervently believe we are constantly heading for a massive market ‘correction’.

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New Condo Sales Back From The Dead

After nearly a year of massive declines in sales and stagnant or falling prices, it seems that new condos are back. Urbanation’s sales figures for Q2 2009 show a dramatic change from Q1. We aren’t back to the hedy days of 2007-2008, but 2963 units sold sounds a heck of a lot healthier than the paltry 917 sold in Q1. Still, the numbers are 40% below Q2 2008 when 4,962 new condos were sold.

In the past 3 months, I’ve personally been involved with 3 major new condo launches or relaunches: FLY, One Cole, and Liberty Market Lofts. All three saw sales in the hundreds of units in a just a matter of 2 or 3 days. This was the norm back in 2007-2008, where new condos were launching every week and if they weren’t quick to raise their prices after initial launch they would sell out faster than you can say ‘economic collapse’.

Now some developers are starting to do something I wouldn’t have predicted just 3 months ago: raise prices. Check out one of Brad Lamb’s recent ‘tweets‘. And all this is taking place concurrently with the resurgence of the resale market. It seems that the lack of inventory in the resale market and elevating prices have people once again looking at new developments as a viable alternative. More bodies in the new condo sales centres of late has developers thinking less about lowering prices and more about raising them.

The focus now for buyers is ‘where can I get the best price, the best value for my investment long term’. No longer are they swayed by frilly incentives like free maintenance fees or low interest rates. Buyers are returning to the price per square foot equation as the best predictor for long-term ROI.

Still, there are more shoes to drop. More condo projects will be axed or relaunched in the coming months. I expect an active fall for the new condo market and more opportunities for buyers and investors to come.

History In The Making?

The Toronto real estate market has undergone such a massive turnaround over the past 3 months I wouldn’t doubt that we will look back on this as an historic event. I’m not saying things will forever be blue skies and sunshine for Toronto real estate investors and home owners, but its clear that in the past 12 months we have witnessed 2 seismic shifts. The first happened in October 2008 when the market began to free fall, and then the second occurred around May 1st when buyers came out of the woodwork in droves and ate up every available listing in sight, sending prices sky rocketing.

I’ve been talking a lot lately about supply and demand on this blog. The figures are staggering over the past few months. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the analysts and economists to explain what has happened in this city over this relatively short period of time.

Rather than try to add more words to the discussion, I found a great visual display over at guava.ca that illustrates what I’ve been talking about. Take a look through the charts found on this great site and see how the last 12 months compares to activity over the past 5 years. Look at the “V” shape for the total months of inventory. Very revealing.

chart from guava.ca

Buyers Take a Beating in June

The headlines all proclaim that June was the “best month on record“, but if you were a buyer in the month of June, you’d probably disagree. As usual, let’s take a look at the numbers just for downtown condos.

In C01 (downtown west) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:

SALES: 2007 – 336 sales | 2008 – 276 sales | 2009 – 400 sales (up 45% from ’08 and up 19% from ’07)

AVG PRICES: 2007 – $315,207 | 2008 – $360,010 | 2009 – $340,895 (down 5% from ’08, up 8% from ’07)

MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $281,000 | 2008 – $307,570 | 2009 – $307,500 (flat from ’08, up 9% from ’07)

SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 71% | 2008 – 44% | 2009 – 70%

In C08 (downtown east) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:

SALES: 2007 – 123 sales | 2008 – 126 sales | 2009 – 165 sales (up 31% from ’08 and up 34% from ’07)

AVG PRICES: 2007 – $309,449 | 2008 – $322,003 | 2009 – $345,465 (down 7% from ’08, up 12% from ’07)

MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $271,000 | 2008 – $303,500 | 2009 – $327,000 (up 8% from ’08, up 21% from ’07)

SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 90% | 2008 – 57% | 2009 – 88%

Sales are way up over last year and even above where they were in 2007. If you look at the sales:active listing ratios, the numbers are off the charts in favour of seller’s. Supply is just not nearly keeping up with demand.

Median prices for downtown west (where the bulk of condo activity occurs downtown) are basically flat from last year which fits with anecdotal evidence that suggests prices are right back to where they were at the peak of the market.

What does the future hold? I think June will go down as the busiest month of 2009. I think July and August will be very active months, however, heading into the fall market and into the winter I have to believe we have no where to go but down (in terms of number of sales and directional pressure on prices). Things should be improving for buyers soon. Interest rates have gone up substantially of late, and hopefully as some new condo buildings come online over the next few months, we will see a bump in inventory levels.

For additional reading check out “Alarming Inbalance in Toronto’s Real Estate Market“.

Questions? Comments? I’d love to hear from you.