Finally the numbers are in. TREB took a lot longer than usual to release the final sales numbers for the month of December, maybe because they were so painful to look at they had to double check them several times, hoping they would magically improve themselves. 
Here are all the gory details.
Compared to December 2007:
- In C01 (downtown west), condo sales are down 49%, average prices are down 10%, and inventory is up 76%. The number of sales as a percentage of active listings was 14% versus 48% last year.
- In C08 (downtown east), condo sales are down 45%, average prices are down 10%, and inventory is up a staggering 180%. The number of sales as a percentage of active listings was 20% versus 101% last year (not a typo-Q4 2007 was absolutely crazy!).
So if we just stopped there the numbers would be very similar to what was reported for the month of November, but there is something else very significant happening which will likely not be reported on much in the news media. Check this out:
Compared to November 2008 (last month):
- In C01, condo inventory has decreased by 26% (843 listings in November vs. 667 in December)
- In C08, condo inventory has decreased by 29% (359 listings in November vs. 254 in December)
Let me preface this by saying that it is normal for inventory to drop between the months of November to December as it is well known that December is not the best month to be a seller. However, this could be a sign of what many are fearing:
Sellers are holding off en masse to re-list their properties in the spring. Some believe that the market will be flooded with listings this spring and that will be when it really ‘hits the fan’. Time will tell.
So what do the latest numbers mean to you?
- For Buyers – Prices are down, but not everywhere. Median prices have not changed all that much. Shop for bargains now but understand that there is no rush as Spring could bring surplus inventory.
- For Sellers - If you couldn’t sell your condo in the fall and are planning on relisting this spring, you might want to speed up the process and go to market now to try to avoid the rush to the gate.
- For Investors - Stick to the fundamentals. Look for properties that have been on the market the longest and offer the chance at positive cash flows.
Dec 2008 Downtown Condo Stats
Previous Posts in This Series:
- October 2008 Condo Market Update: “Is the Toronto Condo Market Crashing?”
- November 2008 Condo Market Update: “Tipping Point? Downtown Condo Prices Fall, Inventory Soars”
11 Comments For This Post
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New Condo Market Sales Statistics December 2008 | AndrewLaFleur.com - Toronto Condos Says:
January 27th, 2009 at 1:03 pm[...] off significantly. [Note: these numbers are for new condos. For resale condos, see my previous posts for more stats on the downtown condo market.]In 2007, over 23,210 new condos were sold in Toronto [...]
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January Stats are Available | AndrewLaFleur.com - Toronto Condos Says:
February 6th, 2009 at 11:05 am[...] you are waiting check out my analysis of the stats for December, November, and October. addthis_url = ‘http%3A%2F%2Fandrewlafleur.com%2Fcondo-stats-january-2009′; [...]
January 10th, 2009 at 2:43 pm
Hi there Andrew, thanks for the complement… your site looks great, what theme are you using?
January 12th, 2009 at 3:43 pm
Great post Andrew because you present your information so fairly and honestly which I find refreshing. I agree that inventory levels are a key indicator to watch and that your hunch about the spring market may be quite right.
Happy New Year and best wishes to you for 2009!
January 12th, 2009 at 11:56 pm
I wouldn’t panic with these figures – as you said for many areas November through February has naturally lower sales than the rest of the year. (Holidays and cold weather doesn’t make too many people want to start packing boxes!)
If it continues like this through June, then I would worry – but I’m sure it will pick up by then
January 14th, 2009 at 9:15 am
Good analysis Andrew–last fall was artifically inflated due to the land transfer tax deadline in Jan/08. I think comparing YOY 08 to 09 will give us a more balanced view.
January 15th, 2009 at 12:09 am
Andrew:
At what inventory levels do you see the market breaking down? What if the CDN $ plummets to levels of 35-40 US cents rather than the 70-75 cents predicted? Toronto prices may then start a reversal and may firm upwards? It also depends on the Unemployment rate– which could turn bad– plus the fact that the entire 250-300k new immigrants dilute the labor rate in Toronto. Let us see….
January 15th, 2009 at 1:08 am
Mike R,
Cdn dollar going to 35 cents US? Can’t say that I have heard anyone predicting that.
The key indicator for me will be employment rates in the GTA. So far employment is holding up well. People still have their jobs, they still have money in the bank, they just aren’t spending it.
I don’t think there is a magic number as far as the inventory goes, I just think it will be important to watch how it grows over the next few months or if it stabilizes.
January 18th, 2009 at 9:47 pm
Nice analysis…I took the listing of my condo off the market last month after it was active for 3 months without any offer. I though to list it again in the spring, but after reading this article I realized that I will probably won’t be able to sell. So I guess I’ll have to stay in my condo for another year as I’m not willing to negotiate about the price.
January 25th, 2009 at 4:18 pm
The price is down very fast if you coompare the prices of recent listings and the ones one month ago of a quite new building on Carlton st.
January 25th, 2009 at 9:29 pm
The price on somewhere in downtown is $350/sqft or so. A week ago is about 400$ or so. It was only $280 or so in 2004. I wonder if the price will return to that level because the recent inventory is much larger than that of 2004. Furthermore, the financial crisis is much more severe than any in the past 100 years. I read a famous economist in a big bank. He said in his article that the financial cisis is realty crisis in fact and it takes some time to be seen. Some use the word ” realty slaughter will happen “. A lot of people will loose money like in stock market. Is this happening? What is the healthy price for builder and buyers?
January 25th, 2009 at 10:39 pm
Hi Please Advise,
I’m not sure I follow what you are saying completely but thanks for the comment.
As I’ve been saying in this blog, prices have not really changed very much for downtown condos. Comparing inventory today to inventory in 2004 is not really a worthwhile exercise in trying to figure out where prices are going.
What is a healthy price for builders and for buyers? The simple answer is whatever price the market will bear.
February 6th, 2009 at 9:01 am
Love the website.
Do you have average condo sale prices going back to at least 1996? As well, do you have a chart on the related price per sqft going back to at least 1996?
Thanks.