What Happened The Last Time

Mon, Jun 14, 2010

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You know the resale condo market is slowing down when the mainstream media starts writing articles telling us that it is. By the time the MSM gets on the train, it has already left the station and is well on its way to its destination. Reader of this blog and clients of mine have already known that the market has peaked and has been slowing for quite some time already.

On the pre-construction side however, it’s a different story. Buyers and agents are still lining up for the latest and greatest pre-construction launches all over downtown (seems to be one just about every week). Demand is still far outstripping supply with projects like FIVE condos supposedly receiving several hundred worksheets in the first few hours post-launch, and other projects like The Berczy and King Edward Hotel practically selling out overnight.

This is all eerily similar to the pattern we saw the last time the market slowed down. The resale market started to show signs of cracking around June/July 2008, but the pre-construction market kept humming along until the fall of ‘08 when it too was affected. But prices if you recall, did not come down in pre-construction until around the spring of ‘09 when everyone was ‘relaunching’ their projects with reduced pricing and finally the momentum came back.

The resale market is much more sensitive to changes in the overall housing market than the pre-construction side. Individual sellers are much more inclined to reduce prices compared to slow moving developers who don’t do anything without talking about it for at least a month or two. The pre-construction market will slow this year, but developers will probably not notice it until the Fall.

Does this mean it is a bad time to buy pre-construction? Not necessarily. I believe there are good opportunities to buy in any market, you just have to know how to evaluate the opportunities and make smart buying decisions. One project that is a still a great buy for me remains DNA3. Questions or comments? Contact me.

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DNA3 Looks Like a Winner

Thu, Jun 3, 2010

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dna3 condos

DNA3 is just about ready for launch, but I have been granted VIP access to the project in advance of the wider openings later this month. If you are interested in getting a unit at this project, contact me right away for your best opportunity to buy.

Details on the project are now in. Standout suite features include:

  • Built-in, integrated stainless steel European sized appliances including: fridge, range, microwave, range hood (very sexy)
  • Engineered hardwood throughout including bedrooms and dens (say good bye to carpet forever!)
  • All bedrooms have windows – no ‘buried’ bedrooms without windows in the building!
  • Exposed concrete 9′ ceilings
  • Balconies or terraces on all units

Exciting building features include:

  • 6000 square feet of retail on the ground level including one very exciting anchor tenant (TBA)
  • 3 outdoor roof-top terrace areas including a Las Vegas/South Beach inspired “Misting Station” (HOT!)
  • Massive gym, multiple party rooms, yoga room, business centre, theatre room (very extensive amenities)

King West has arrived as one of the premier neighbourhoods downtown. DNA3 offers amazing value for the location and features/finishes of the building. Definitely a winner and TrueCondos.com approved investment opportunity. For details, please contact me.

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What Ever Happened to Cash Flow?

Tue, Jun 1, 2010

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Investing in Toronto condos used to be a pretty straightforward proposition: buy a property with as little down as possible then rent it out with the income from the rent covering your mortgage, taxes, maintenance on the property etc. For much of 90s and the first half of the 2000s, this was the way it worked in Toronto and many investors took this approach. Sometime around late 2006 this all changed when property values continued to rise while rental rates began to stagnate and in some cases drop. Positive cash flow with 20-25% down disappeared.

When the market dipped in late 2008-early 2009, prices fell, interest rates fell, and rental rates stayed the same. It was a perfect storm whereby positive cash flow with 25% down reappeared on the Toronto scene, and a few savvy investors noticed this and began to buy once again. The market heated up in mid 2009 and has stayed hot ever since.  Prices rose, and so did interest rates. Today, it’s safe to say that buying a resale condo downtown for more than about $500 per square foot will result in a negative cash flow situation (assuming 25% down). Nobody likes negative cash flow!

The obvious question is how sustainable is a market like this where investors are buying condos by the thousands priced at $600-$800 per square foot that they know for a fact will not generate positive cash flow? So many investors are counting on their properties to appreciate so that they will make a profit. This could very well happen, but by definition this is speculation rather than investing.

I’d like to know what cash flow rates in the larger cities like New York or London are like. Any of my readers with experience in these markets, feel free to comment on how investors approach this issue in one of these cities that Toronto is being compared to more and more often these days.

Questions or comments? I always welcome my readers’ feedback!

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5 Things Every Buyer Should Know about Model Suites

Thu, May 27, 2010

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The model suite is built and designed to entice the senses and ignite the imagination. Developers know that they only have a few seconds to grab a potential buyer’s attention and make them feel like they want to move into the condo immediately. In order to achieve this result, developers have long been using several ‘tricks of the trade’ to make their model suites appear as appealing as possible. Here are 5 things every buyer should know about model suites before walking into any condo sales centre:

  1. Ceiling Height. Often model suites are in loft or commercial space where the ceiling heights are far higher than what you will actually receive. Side note, The Berczy’s model suite has 8′ ceilings whereas the suites will have a minimum of 9′ ceilings – first time I’ve actually seen this!
  2. Doors. Many model suites don’t have doors between rooms, this creates the illusion of more space.
  3. Upgrades. Every model suite has some sort of upgrade. Counter tops, appliances, hardwood in the bedrooms, the type of hardwood used, bathroom tiles used, etc. Ask yourself why is this? It can only mean that the standard finishes will not effectively ’sell’ the building which means you will likely be paying more for your unit than you originally planned to! Quick tip: if a sales person can’t tell you exactly what is an upgrade and what isn’t an upgrade in the model suite – RUN the other way!
  4. Custom wood work. I’m seeing this more and more in model suites – custom mill work on walls, built-in storage, built-in desks, etc. This is a design trend that developers are adopting in their model suites but remember, when you move it it’s nothing but concrete and drywall painted in “Egg Shell White”!
  5. Furniture and Lighting. The furniture and light fixtures being used in most sales centres are top of the line, high-end pieces.  The average person would be shocked to hear how much money was spent on the furniture and lighting in a typical model suite. Look past the $10,000 couch and $2,500 chandelier and see if you still fall in love with the unit itself before signing on the dotted line.

If you are thinking about buying a pre-construction condo, educate yourself first and never register with a developer without representation. Questions or comments? Contact me.

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Coming Soon to Queen West: 12 Degrees

Tue, May 18, 2010

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12 Degrees - Pool

When it comes to this condo project, I think the photo above says it all. 12 Degrees Condominiums is attempting to personify the so-hip-it-hurts vibe of Queen Street West and with a rooftop pool and cabana area like this, I think they just might acheive it.

The VIP sales event for 12 Degrees is on now. For floor plans and pricing, please contact me. Pricing is about $600 PSF, similar to Berczy, FIVE, Nicholas etc.

Queen and Beverly is TRUE Queen West. The area has already arrived and is one of the best spots in Toronto to live. You won’t find any mega towers around here, and probably never will, but the area is already home to some immensely popular boutique sized resale buildings like The Phoebe. The building features a very unique design that gives a sort of off-kilter Rubik’s Cube visual effect. If they are actually able to build this project as it is currently designed, it will be very impressive and probably an architectural gem for the area.

Features include an ultra-modern design aesthetic with 9′ ceilings, hardwood throughout, streamlined kitchens with integrated european style appliances. But really, it’s all about the rooftop pool and cabana area! Can you imagine enjoying the hot summer nights in Queen West on that rooftop overlooking the downtown core? Incredible! And you only have to share it with a total of 90 unit owners unlike some of the mega towers where you are sharing amenities with literally hundreds of other people!

The X-Factor here is obviously the developer who is a bit of an unknown commodity here in Toronto.

To book a unit at 12 Degrees NOW, contact me.

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12 Degrees

Tue, May 18, 2010

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Description Coming Soon!

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Berczy: Post Mortem

Tue, May 18, 2010

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Whenever a development launches in a prime A1 location like The Berczy, it is sure to garner a lot of attention. This is true no matter what the economic climate or how hot the real estate market is. The Berczy had many investors and first time buyers salivating at the prospects of owning in a beautiful building in one of the best spots in the city, but unfortunately many of them went home disappointed after sales started this past weekend. The situation reminds me a lot of a previous post I wrote last year – Prepare to be Disappointed. Some of my observations from the weekend:

  • As early as Saturday afternoon I had already received several calls from agents or would-be clients from other Realtors who were lamenting the fact that there were no small suites to buy
  • On both sales days – Saturday and Sunday, it seemed there were no small suites available by the time the clock struck 10:30am.
  • There seemed to be an allocated amount of suites to each day of sales, so if you had an appointment at 10:00am Sunday you were better off than an appointment at 2:00pm Saturday.
  • On Saturday there was a huge crowd of agents outside the sales centre trying to get in without an appointment. Presumably by Sunday they had gotten the message as they were turning people away if they did not have an appointment.
  • No detailed price list was ever released so it’s hard to know if the developer was raising prices at the last minute or not since there was nothing to compare the stated prices to.
  • The sales reps said they were NOT holding back units for future events
  • The rescission rate for this event could be high because buyers were buying 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice of suite since their 1st choice was not available.
  • Even the larger 1000 sq ft + suites were selling briskly over the weekend. This suggests that while investors went away disappointed, end-user buyers with means did mostly get what they wanted.
  • My clients managed to get a 2 storey unit with 11′ ceilings for $491 per square foot.
  • City view suites on higher floors were going into the mid $600s per square foot – still reasonable.
  • Kitchen and Bathroom finishes were above average – especially nice were the integrated appliances and forward thinking design colour palattes
  • Sales centre and model suite was very well designed and presented.
  • Bottom line, this is not an investor-driven building and will likely be a fantastic piece of real estate when it is built in a few years.

Questions about The Berczy? Still want to buy a suite in the building? Contact me for up to date availability and pricing.

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Coming Soon: FIVE Condos

Wed, May 12, 2010

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Five condos toronto

This one could be spectacular. The combination of Graywood Developments (Ritz Carlton, 8 Mercer), and Mod Developments (new company formed by the former head of Great Gulf – Michael Switzer) means this project has some serious pedigree behind it and the location is a can’t miss proposition. Assuming the prices come in at something very similar to Nicholas Residences (low $600s Per Square Foot at the VIP stage), this one could be one of my top picks for investment in 2010.

FIVE Condos is going to be 45 storeys, and will be situation right at Yonge and St Joseph Street which is about a 3 minute walk to Yonge and Bloor where Great Gulf is asking – and getting – well over $800 per square foot for Number One Bloor. The finishes are rumored to be a step above the quality of say a Charlie or an X2, but not into the true luxury category of the upper floor suites at Number One Bloor. Still, Miele appliances are nothing to sneeze at, and my hopes are high for the value-proposition of this development – yes, even at $650 PSF.

The VIP sales period for FIVE will commence on May 18th in the afternoon. There will be an event for brokers and agents like myself where we will get the floor plans and pricing (and some free food), and later that afternoon they will start accepting worksheets for suite reservations/requests. The earlier you get your worksheet in, the better the chance of getting your suite of choice. Frankly, it also helps a great deal to have a Realtor working for you that has a previous experience with the sales team handling the project – which I do.

It’s also worth highlighting the unique architectural features of the project – undulating balconies and the integration of several heritage buildings on Yonge and St Joseph Streets. Similar to the approach that Nicholas took, but executed with a higher degree of sophistication and reflecting the city’s value of new urbanism.

To register with me for the VIP sales event for FIVE, please contact me.

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FIVE

Wed, May 12, 2010

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Two prominent developers are combining forces to introduce FIVE – Condos at 5 St. Joseph, Toronto’s hottest new condominium that will tap into the cool energy of Yonge Street, just south of Bloor. Rising to 45 storeys of glimmering glass punctuated by an undulating pattern of balconies, FIVE will launch the rejuvenation of this prime area. It is also the premier condominium by Five St. Joseph Developments Ltd. – a joint venture between Graywood Developments Ltd. and the newly formed MOD Developments Inc.

Graywood is the renowned developer of The Ritz‑Carlton, Toronto and has earned the reputation as a significant force in the residential condominium market. MOD is led by industry veteran Gary Switzer, the former head of high-rise development at Great Gulf Homes (one of the GTA’s major development companies) for more than 20 years, who spearheaded several award-winning landmark condominium residences in the city’s core. Both firms focus on creating high-quality residences in premier locations that feature innovation and design excellence.

Taking the concept of creative design to a new dimension, FIVE St. Joseph will marry the future and the past by tying in components of the existing heritage architecture with the stunning modern tower. Graywood and MOD enlisted highly respected Hariri Pontarini Architects to create the contemporary iconic exterior. Among this firm’s accolades is a coveted Governor General’s Medal in Architecture, recognizing outstanding achievement in design excellence.

The articulated sculptural tower will rise from a podium that includes several of the small shops that have lined Yonge Street since the 1880s and are undergoing a restoration by ERA Architects to house new retail venues. ERA is restoring a four-storey 1905 Gothic Revival warehouse façade on historic tree-lined St. Joseph Street that will become the condominium’s entry. Retail shops will line charming cobblestoned St. Nicholas Street, and topping off the podium design is a roof garden designed by acclaimed landscape architect Janet Rosenberg and Associates, to serve as an urban oasis for residents. The resulting building will inject the St. Joseph-Yonge intersection with panache that references the prestige of the Bloor-Yorkville area to the north.

Multi-award-winning Cecconi Simone Inc. rounds out the design team with interiors that speak to the edgy sophistication of the urban professionals and entrepreneurs whose distinctive tastes attract them to this area. The amenities in the building are focused on entertaining and relaxation, and have an attitude. “FIVE ON FIVE” offers the complete package for fitness and fun, and “THE GARDEN ON TWO” is a tempting urban escape.

Situated a few short blocks south of Bloor Street on the west side of Yonge, FIVE St. Joseph will offer a fantastic location in the strategic hub of many of Toronto’s most exciting amenities. Those who work at Queen’s Park, in one of the world-renowned hospitals along and around University Avenue, the Royal Ontario Museum, Gardiner Museum, or any of the multitude of shops, restaurants and office buildings in the vicinity, or who attend the University of Toronto or Ryerson University will find it easy to walk or take the subway to work or school.

At FIVE St. Joseph, purchasers will be able to choose from a variety of styles from heritage lofts to tower suites, with studios, one-bedroom, one-bedroom + den, two-bedroom and two-bedroom + den layouts. Sizes range from a 400 square-foot studio to a 1,400 square-foot terraced penthouse. Prices start from just the mid $200s.

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Coming Soon: Post House Condos

Mon, May 3, 2010

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Fullscreen capture 03052010 11003 PM

It has been about a year and a half since I first wrote on this blog about Post House Condos. The developer (Alterra) first put up signage on the property at Adelaide and George Street around that time, but the project is just launching sales now. The project probably was put on hold during the market dip of fall 2008-spring 2009, and now a year later, they look to be finally ready to start selling units.

Post House looks like it should be a nice addition to the growing number of pre-construction projects in the St Lawrence / King East neighbourhood.  Another boutique-sized building, this should appeal mostly to end-users, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they follow the trend of having the majority of suites as 1 bedroom or 1+dens under 700 sq ft to capture a good portion of investor buyers. In this market it’s just too tempting for developers to not make their projects investor-friendly.

For more information on this project and to receive floor plans and pricing for any upcoming VIP sales events, please contact me.

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