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Tipping Point?

For the first time in 16 years, sales of new condominiums in Toronto were lower in the second quarter than they were in the first quarter. This, according to the latest stats in from Urbanation. So what? Well, real estate is highly cyclical (at least it used to be), and the busiest months of any given year are usually during the spring market (April-May-June).  This year we sold so many condos in the winter months (5415) that we couldn’t match that total in the spring (we only sold 4991). Does this represent a tipping point in the new condo market?

Readers of this blog will know that the resale market peaked back in late March/early April. And they will also know that I’ve been preaching that the new development market would do the same, but it would just take a few more months to do so. So things are playing out in a predictable fashion so far this year but we need to know how to understand this changing market and where it is going next.

There are basically two ways of interpreting this data. One is that sales were so incredibly (and unusually) high in the first quarter of this year that we had no where to go but down. The other is that this has never happened once in the last 15 years in our market – 15 years of a nearly continuous bull market – and so this must represent a fundamental change in our market. The truth is probably somewhere in between these two extremes.

I don’t see any cause for concern that the pre-build market is about to ‘crash’ or face any significant price reductions, however, I do see and hear more caution and less optimism in developer’s voices when I speak to them and they are no longer assuming anything they throw at the market will be absorbed. My personal opinion is that given the ongoing fluctuations in the global economy and the Bank of Canada’s bi-monthly statements which assure us they have no idea what is going on either, we are entering into what could be a prolonged season of uncertainty in our real estate market. Continue to invest smart and with a long-term outlook. Buying to flip is sooo 2007.

Want to discuss your investment options in this market? Contact me today.

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Is Toronto Different?

Are we different? This recent piece from MSNBC on the differences between the U.S. and Canadian housing markets once again hits on the big question of why did we not experience the housing market crash that the rest of the world (especially the U.S.) did. Are we fundamentally different and insulated from the U.S. housing market? Even more important – moving forward is the Toronto Condo Market at risk of collapse?

Doomsayers like Garth Turner would say that we are exactly the same as the U.S. in that we have lax lending requirements and our own versions of sub prime lenders, and that we are living way beyond our means. Of course, Garth has been saying this for about 3 years now, and written two books about it, and still we are awaiting the big crash that he says is imminent.

Most bankers and economists would tell you that Canada is different because we are more conservative or something like that.

Both sides of the argument to me sound like a whole lot of cliché and not much analysis of the numbers or reasoning behind their statements. Predicting the real estate market beyond the next quarter or so is always a fools’ game. Look at every long-term prediction that has been made by bankers, Realtor associations (like TREB or CREA), economists, and pundits over the past 5 years. One thing they all have in common is that they were all wrong! The best these so called ‘experts’ can do it seems, is tell you that things will be slightly different next year than they were this year.

There is no debate now that the Toronto condo market is losing steam. Listings are up, sales are slowing, prices are weakening. The inevitable questions are now are will it crash? How long will this ‘down market’ last? Isn’t it our inalienable right as Torontonians to always have an upward moving condo market?? But the biggest question is, where do I put my money as an investor? There are good opportunities in every market, including down markets, in which to invest. I’m investing now, and you should too. Contact me if you’d like to discuss.

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What Happened The Last Time

You know the resale condo market is slowing down when the mainstream media starts writing articles telling us that it is. By the time the MSM gets on the train, it has already left the station and is well on its way to its destination. Reader of this blog and clients of mine have already known that the market has peaked and has been slowing for quite some time already.

On the pre-construction side however, it’s a different story. Buyers and agents are still lining up for the latest and greatest pre-construction launches all over downtown (seems to be one just about every week). Demand is still far outstripping supply with projects like FIVE condos supposedly receiving several hundred worksheets in the first few hours post-launch, and other projects like The Berczy and King Edward Hotel practically selling out overnight.

This is all eerily similar to the pattern we saw the last time the market slowed down. The resale market started to show signs of cracking around June/July 2008, but the pre-construction market kept humming along until the fall of ‘08 when it too was affected. But prices if you recall, did not come down in pre-construction until around the spring of ‘09 when everyone was ‘relaunching’ their projects with reduced pricing and finally the momentum came back.

The resale market is much more sensitive to changes in the overall housing market than the pre-construction side. Individual sellers are much more inclined to reduce prices compared to slow moving developers who don’t do anything without talking about it for at least a month or two. The pre-construction market will slow this year, but developers will probably not notice it until the Fall.

Does this mean it is a bad time to buy pre-construction? Not necessarily. I believe there are good opportunities to buy in any market, you just have to know how to evaluate the opportunities and make smart buying decisions. One project that is a still a great buy for me remains DNA3. Questions or comments? Contact me.

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What Ever Happened to Cash Flow?

Investing in Toronto condos used to be a pretty straightforward proposition: buy a property with as little down as possible then rent it out with the income from the rent covering your mortgage, taxes, maintenance on the property etc. For much of 90s and the first half of the 2000s, this was the way it worked in Toronto and many investors took this approach. Sometime around late 2006 this all changed when property values continued to rise while rental rates began to stagnate and in some cases drop. Positive cash flow with 20-25% down disappeared.

When the market dipped in late 2008-early 2009, prices fell, interest rates fell, and rental rates stayed the same. It was a perfect storm whereby positive cash flow with 25% down reappeared on the Toronto scene, and a few savvy investors noticed this and began to buy once again. The market heated up in mid 2009 and has stayed hot ever since.  Prices rose, and so did interest rates. Today, it’s safe to say that buying a resale condo downtown for more than about $500 per square foot will result in a negative cash flow situation (assuming 25% down). Nobody likes negative cash flow!

The obvious question is how sustainable is a market like this where investors are buying condos by the thousands priced at $600-$800 per square foot that they know for a fact will not generate positive cash flow? So many investors are counting on their properties to appreciate so that they will make a profit. This could very well happen, but by definition this is speculation rather than investing.

I’d like to know what cash flow rates in the larger cities like New York or London are like. Any of my readers with experience in these markets, feel free to comment on how investors approach this issue in one of these cities that Toronto is being compared to more and more often these days.

Questions or comments? I always welcome my readers’ feedback!

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The Market Has Peaked, So Now What?

So the market has peaked (probably). Now what do you do? Well, first thing to remember is that most people won’t realize the market has peaked for about 3 months so if you are reading this you are way ahead of the curve. Secondly we are not talking about a market crash, and quite possibly we may not even see prices start to fall till Q3 or Q4 of this year. Making predictions on exactly how much prices will rise or fall is fool’s game, so I won’t go there, but I could forsee a scenario with flat or slightly falling prices by the end of 2010. Depending on what your situation is, here are some quick thoughts moving forward:

For Buyers:

It’s already much better now than it was just 2 months ago. Inventory is up, some sellers are starting to get a grip on reality, and you actually have multiple properties to choose from. Things will continue to get better as inventory continues to rise along with interest rates which will increase supply and decrease demand at the same time. Don’t rush into anything. Now is not the time to pay higher for a property than the last guy did. Buy smart, buy for the long term.

For Sellers:

Understand that the market has changed. Price your property for what it is worth and don’t follow the “price it low for multiple offers” strategy. Remember that if you want to command top dollar in terms of selling price, your property must show better than all the other properties on the market – proper staging and marketing is vital. Better to list now than wait till Summer. There is still time to close before the HST kicks in July 1st. Want to talk about selling your condo? Contact me.

Investors:

Keep buying if the property makes sense and the neighbourhood has good long-term upside potential. Stop buying if you are hoping to flip for a quick profit or if you are over extended.

Questions or comments? Thinking about buying, selling, or investing and want the advice of a professional who understands the market? Contact me

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The Market Has Peaked

Some of my colleagues may not want to believe it, but we are now in a new market reality. The extremely bullish market we have been experiencing for the past 12 months, at times accelerating at a break neck pace, has ended. Top-10 anecdotal signs that the market has already peaked:

1. ‘Fake’ developer websites for new developments are at an all-time high. These are websites set up by Realtors looking to capture buyers when a new development launches. Many of these sites are designed to mimic the developer’s official websites / registration forms. We saw this trend emerge right before the market dipped in mid 2008.
2. Developers are starting to LOWER their commission offerings to agents. Lower commissions can only mean one thing: Developers believe it’s too easy to sell condos in Toronto right now.
3. Positive cash-flow is now a complete impossibility at just about every new development or resale condo downtown. Investors with a traditional investment mindset are heading for other markets.
4. One Bloor has about 700 units to sell, and the minimum up front investment is $100K. Demanding so much cash up front from buyers means the banks are restricting the cash flow to developers.
5. Developers have been practically encouraging ‘flippers’ by offering $0 assignments during the first 90 days of buying into a new development.
6. Resale sellers are holding off on offers, not getting an offers, then raising their asking prices in response. Buyers are moving on to other properties.
7. Listings for the GTA are up 48% for the first half of April compared to this time last year.
8. Listings are at an all time high for my company – Re/Max Condos Plus – one of the biggest players in the downtown condo market.
9. Interest rates have risen almost a full 1% over the past few months and (most likely) will continue to rise.
10. Government + the banking industry appear to be consorting to stifle demand for fear of creating a housing bubble.

Questions? Comments? Got your own anecdotes or stats to add to this list? Think I’ve totally lost my mind?  Contact me.

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January Market Update from Re/Max Condos Plus

I am part of one of the best condo brokerages downtown – Re/Max Condos Plus. Our broker of record is Jamie Johnston. Jamie has been in this business a long time and he’s a very sharp cat. Follow him on Twitter and check out our company blog which Jamie writes. Jamie just put out his latest market forecast and as usual he has some pretty strong opinions. Keep reading after the jump for the full report and let me know what you think in the comments section or send me an email.

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Pricing Starting to Favour Pre-Construction

Once upon a time in Toronto real estate, there was a rule  that investors followed religiously – you only buy a pre-construction condo if the price is lower than that of a comparable existing resale condo. If the price wasn’t lower than existing resale condos of similar quality in the immediate area, then it just didn’t make sense to buy. After all, why take on the risk of buying ‘from plans’ when you don’t know how long it will actually take to be delivered, what the final build quality will be like, and what additional surprise costs you may incur along the way.

When market really started to get hot sometime in mid-2007, and pre-construction condos became the thing everyone and their mom were investing in, this long-held rule was abandoned. Prices of pre-construction started to reach heights never seen in the resale market. $600 Per Square Foot was suddenly a normal rate for pre-builds, whereas resale prices were still hovering around $425 PSF.

Over the last six months, there has been a seismic shift in the resale market. Prices have escalated at about 2% per month since June 1. If you bought a condo on May 1st of this year anywhere downtown, it likely has appreciated about 12% in value. Congrats.

Prices have gone up so much and so quickly in the resale market that the value is now, incredibly, starting to once again favour pre-construction.  Resale prices in several of the ‘prime’ downtown buildings like College Park, The Hudson, The Met, 18 Yorkville, Mozo, are now routinely hitting the $550-$575 PSF range. One upper floor 1+den with parking unit at College Park recently sold for $660 PSF! With several pre-construction projects across the downtown still selling between $500-$550 PSF, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out where the best value for your investment dollar is and where it will be in the months ahead.

If you are interested in taking advantage of some hidden gems in the pre-construction market downtown, let’s talk.

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New Condo Sales Still Down; Prices Still Up

[**CHART REMOVED DUE TO COPYRIGHT CLAIM BY REALNET CANADA INC.**]

Realnet has released the sales figures for new condos for the month of January. Prices are still increasing despite the fact that the number of sales continues to be significantly lower than a year ago.

Prices are up 8% for high rise condos while sales were down 64% compared to January 2008. 

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Price of New Condos Holding Strong Despite Plummeting Sales

[**CHART REMOVED DUE TO COPYRIGHT CLAIM BY REALNET CANADA INC.**]

The final sales figures for new condos from Realnet are in for the December and the year 2008. In short, prices are still going up, while sales have dropped off significantly. [Note: these numbers are for new condos. For resale condos, see my previous posts for more stats on the downtown condo market.] (more…)

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