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Tipping Point?

For the first time in 16 years, sales of new condominiums in Toronto were lower in the second quarter than they were in the first quarter. This, according to the latest stats in from Urbanation. So what? Well, real estate is highly cyclical (at least it used to be), and the busiest months of any given year are usually during the spring market (April-May-June).  This year we sold so many condos in the winter months (5415) that we couldn’t match that total in the spring (we only sold 4991). Does this represent a tipping point in the new condo market?

Readers of this blog will know that the resale market peaked back in late March/early April. And they will also know that I’ve been preaching that the new development market would do the same, but it would just take a few more months to do so. So things are playing out in a predictable fashion so far this year but we need to know how to understand this changing market and where it is going next.

There are basically two ways of interpreting this data. One is that sales were so incredibly (and unusually) high in the first quarter of this year that we had no where to go but down. The other is that this has never happened once in the last 15 years in our market – 15 years of a nearly continuous bull market – and so this must represent a fundamental change in our market. The truth is probably somewhere in between these two extremes.

I don’t see any cause for concern that the pre-build market is about to ‘crash’ or face any significant price reductions, however, I do see and hear more caution and less optimism in developer’s voices when I speak to them and they are no longer assuming anything they throw at the market will be absorbed. My personal opinion is that given the ongoing fluctuations in the global economy and the Bank of Canada’s bi-monthly statements which assure us they have no idea what is going on either, we are entering into what could be a prolonged season of uncertainty in our real estate market. Continue to invest smart and with a long-term outlook. Buying to flip is sooo 2007.

Want to discuss your investment options in this market? Contact me today.

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New Condo Sales Back From The Dead

After nearly a year of massive declines in sales and stagnant or falling prices, it seems that new condos are back. Urbanation’s sales figures for Q2 2009 show a dramatic change from Q1. We aren’t back to the hedy days of 2007-2008, but 2963 units sold sounds a heck of a lot healthier than the paltry 917 sold in Q1. Still, the numbers are 40% below Q2 2008 when 4,962 new condos were sold.

In the past 3 months, I’ve personally been involved with 3 major new condo launches or relaunches: FLY, One Cole, and Liberty Market Lofts. All three saw sales in the hundreds of units in a just a matter of 2 or 3 days. This was the norm back in 2007-2008, where new condos were launching every week and if they weren’t quick to raise their prices after initial launch they would sell out faster than you can say ‘economic collapse’.

Now some developers are starting to do something I wouldn’t have predicted just 3 months ago: raise prices. Check out one of Brad Lamb’s recent ‘tweets‘. And all this is taking place concurrently with the resurgence of the resale market. It seems that the lack of inventory in the resale market and elevating prices have people once again looking at new developments as a viable alternative. More bodies in the new condo sales centres of late has developers thinking less about lowering prices and more about raising them.

The focus now for buyers is ‘where can I get the best price, the best value for my investment long term’. No longer are they swayed by frilly incentives like free maintenance fees or low interest rates. Buyers are returning to the price per square foot equation as the best predictor for long-term ROI.

Still, there are more shoes to drop. More condo projects will be axed or relaunched in the coming months. I expect an active fall for the new condo market and more opportunities for buyers and investors to come.

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New Condo Sales Still Down; Prices Still Up

[**CHART REMOVED DUE TO COPYRIGHT CLAIM BY REALNET CANADA INC.**]

Realnet has released the sales figures for new condos for the month of January. Prices are still increasing despite the fact that the number of sales continues to be significantly lower than a year ago.

Prices are up 8% for high rise condos while sales were down 64% compared to January 2008. 

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Price of New Condos Holding Strong Despite Plummeting Sales

[**CHART REMOVED DUE TO COPYRIGHT CLAIM BY REALNET CANADA INC.**]

The final sales figures for new condos from Realnet are in for the December and the year 2008. In short, prices are still going up, while sales have dropped off significantly. [Note: these numbers are for new condos. For resale condos, see my previous posts for more stats on the downtown condo market.] (more…)

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Where is the Toronto Condo Market Heading?

I attended a very informative and interesting seminar last night at the Market Wharf sales office. The event was put on by Context (the developer behind Market Wharf, Spire, Radio City) and was billed as a ‘Buying a Condo Seminar’. It was open to anyone who is on Context’s marketing email list. Normally I avoid events like these like the plague because they are blatant bait-and-switch sales events designed to lure uneducated consumers into buying a condo at a development they know nothing about. However, this one offered something different and I’m glad I attended.

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July Statistics for New Condo Sales

When it comes to real estate statistics, I always take everything with a grain of salt. Fact is, most real estate statistics are compiled and released for general media consumption by the real estate industry: Real Estate Boards, CMHC, Real Estate Marketing companies, Realtors, Lenders, etc. They have a vested interest in a robust housing market. Inevitably this bias will shine through.

I was just reading through the latest numbers from BILD (Building Industry and Land Development Association) and if you just read the headline from the press release, you might conclude that everything is rosy in the new homes and condominium market in Toronto.

The headline reads: “Condo Sales Reach New Heights in July”. Now this can be interpreted in several ways and ‘New heights’ could mean just about anything. In this case it is referring to the fact that new home sales in the high-rise category (i.e. condos) were the highest for the month of July when compared to any other month so far this year. However, looking closer at the numbers clearly shows that the sales figures for July for new condo sales are actually down about 21% compared to July of 2007. Overall, new condo sales in the GTA are down about 22% for the YTD for 2008 when compared with 2007.

Also interesting from this press release is that condos appear to be taking up a greater and greater share of the overall market for new homes in the GTA. The reason given is land that land is becoming scarce. Builders are building up rather than out.

If you have any questions, feel free to drop me an email or leave a comment.

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