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Fort York Neighbourhood: Boom or Bust?

From 10,000 feet, the Fort York neighbourhood is booming. Hard to believe that 10 years ago if you went to the corner of Bathurst and Lakeshore, you wouldn’t see a single condo abutting that intersection. Now there are several completed buildings like 219 and 231 Fort York, 600 Fleet Street, and the nearby 38 Dan Leckie Way (Panorama), and Tip Top Lofts (637 Lake Shore). Under construction and nearly complete are phase 1 and 2 of West Harbour City (628 and 630 Fleet Street), Neptune (640 Fleet), and Quay West at Tip Top. Construction is underway for LTD, and construction will be starting probably late this year on Library District and Garrison at the Yards. If you are counting that is at least 12 major buildings either built or underway.

Obviously the area is very attractive to many people and investors who bought years ago for under $300 per square foot in some cases are doing the “I told you so dance” to those who were skeptical about this area. However, the area has been criticized for having a dearth of amenities and lacking a neighbourhood ‘feel’. What does the future hold for Fort York?

The area has long been one that I’ve proposed to clients and investors who want to own downtown but were squeamish at the thought of paying prime downtown prices for areas like Bay Street, King West or the St Lawrence Market. Fort York is ‘off centre’ in the sense that is downtown, but the Gardiner expressway and the Rail Lands to the north can make the area feel cut off from the action of the city. Retail shops, restaurants, dry cleaners etc. are very scarce. You have to have a car to live in this neighbourhood, or you need be comfortable with long walks or spending a lot of time on the streetcar to get to where you are going.

My opinion is that this area will never be seen as one of the best downtown neighbourhoods, but it will improve as more amenities are added. It will continue to be a good alternative for those wanting to be in the core without paying premium prices. Also it’s great for people commuting to Mississauga. A game changer for the area would be if Loblaw does something exciting or ground-breaking with their building on the north east corner of Bathurst and Lake Shore.

Interested in buying or selling in the Fort York Neighbourhood? Contact me today.

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Tipping Point?

For the first time in 16 years, sales of new condominiums in Toronto were lower in the second quarter than they were in the first quarter. This, according to the latest stats in from Urbanation. So what? Well, real estate is highly cyclical (at least it used to be), and the busiest months of any given year are usually during the spring market (April-May-June).  This year we sold so many condos in the winter months (5415) that we couldn’t match that total in the spring (we only sold 4991). Does this represent a tipping point in the new condo market?

Readers of this blog will know that the resale market peaked back in late March/early April. And they will also know that I’ve been preaching that the new development market would do the same, but it would just take a few more months to do so. So things are playing out in a predictable fashion so far this year but we need to know how to understand this changing market and where it is going next.

There are basically two ways of interpreting this data. One is that sales were so incredibly (and unusually) high in the first quarter of this year that we had no where to go but down. The other is that this has never happened once in the last 15 years in our market – 15 years of a nearly continuous bull market – and so this must represent a fundamental change in our market. The truth is probably somewhere in between these two extremes.

I don’t see any cause for concern that the pre-build market is about to ‘crash’ or face any significant price reductions, however, I do see and hear more caution and less optimism in developer’s voices when I speak to them and they are no longer assuming anything they throw at the market will be absorbed. My personal opinion is that given the ongoing fluctuations in the global economy and the Bank of Canada’s bi-monthly statements which assure us they have no idea what is going on either, we are entering into what could be a prolonged season of uncertainty in our real estate market. Continue to invest smart and with a long-term outlook. Buying to flip is sooo 2007.

Want to discuss your investment options in this market? Contact me today.

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Defence

We are bordering on a buyer’s market right now. I wouldn’t say we are quite there yet, but with the Sales:Active Listings ratio hovering around 35% for downtown condos, buyers certainly have choices when they go out looking for condos this summer. But I don’t want to talk about buying for a change, I want to talk about selling. Specifically, as a seller in this market, you better be able to defend your asking price.

In a seller’s market, where a monkey could sell a condo, agents and sellers will quite often pull a price out of the air without giving it any thought. In a buyer’s market, it’s back to the fundamentals of marketing: Product, Place, Promotion, and PRICE! Yes, choosing the correct asking price is a very important piece of the marketing mix for selling your property.

If you over-price your property, you are shooting yourself in the foot. You will get less potential buyers through your property, less offers, and potentially no offers at all. Inevitably you will have to reduce your price but by then your listing will be ’stale’ and most potential buyers will have moved on.

You might think there are no risks associated with under-pricing, but there are. Underpricing a listing in a seller’s market results in multiple offers and potentially an artificially inflated selling price. Underpricing in a buyer’s market when there are less active buyers and more listings means you could end up selling your property for less than it is actually worth, but you would never even know it because there just isn’t the same critical mass of buyers out there.

Bottom line, you (and more importantly your agent) need to be able to defend your asking price when a buyer’s agent comes a calling and says, “How flexible is the seller on the price? It is a buyer’s market after all…”. Questions or comments? Thinking of selling? Contact me.

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Is Toronto Different?

Are we different? This recent piece from MSNBC on the differences between the U.S. and Canadian housing markets once again hits on the big question of why did we not experience the housing market crash that the rest of the world (especially the U.S.) did. Are we fundamentally different and insulated from the U.S. housing market? Even more important – moving forward is the Toronto Condo Market at risk of collapse?

Doomsayers like Garth Turner would say that we are exactly the same as the U.S. in that we have lax lending requirements and our own versions of sub prime lenders, and that we are living way beyond our means. Of course, Garth has been saying this for about 3 years now, and written two books about it, and still we are awaiting the big crash that he says is imminent.

Most bankers and economists would tell you that Canada is different because we are more conservative or something like that.

Both sides of the argument to me sound like a whole lot of cliché and not much analysis of the numbers or reasoning behind their statements. Predicting the real estate market beyond the next quarter or so is always a fools’ game. Look at every long-term prediction that has been made by bankers, Realtor associations (like TREB or CREA), economists, and pundits over the past 5 years. One thing they all have in common is that they were all wrong! The best these so called ‘experts’ can do it seems, is tell you that things will be slightly different next year than they were this year.

There is no debate now that the Toronto condo market is losing steam. Listings are up, sales are slowing, prices are weakening. The inevitable questions are now are will it crash? How long will this ‘down market’ last? Isn’t it our inalienable right as Torontonians to always have an upward moving condo market?? But the biggest question is, where do I put my money as an investor? There are good opportunities in every market, including down markets, in which to invest. I’m investing now, and you should too. Contact me if you’d like to discuss.

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Client Service Is For Clients

Using a buyer’s agent is not for everyone. Even though I constantly preach on this blog that having a buyer’s agent is absolutely necessary I recognize that not everyone agrees with me. Some buyers prefer to go directly through a seller’s agent, or in the case of new construction-directly through the developer. Everyone has their reasons for doing so, and that’s fine, but what I don’t understand is why some buyers feel they can have their cake and eat it too!

Quite routinely I get emails from buyers who have elected to ‘go it alone’ and buy condos directly from developer. They usually go something like this:

Hi! I really like your blog and what you have to say about the condo market. I just bought a condo at “XX” development but I don’t know if I made the right decision. Did I pay too much? Is this a good area? Are other projects better? Help!

So essentially they don’t want to hire me as their agent (at zero cost to them), but they want my expert advice and opinion on whether they made the right decision! Even better is when the buyer tells me they have their own agent, but yet they don’t care what they say, they want to know what I think!

I’ve been writing this blog about downtown condos for over 3 years now. I’m flattered that many people value what I have to say, but my client services including my advice, opinions, analysis, and access to the best developments in the city are for my clients only. Hiring me as your buyer’s agent will cost you nothing. Not hiring me as your buyer’s agent could cost you thousands.

Questions or comments? Think I’m being an arrogant jerk? Contact me or leave your feedback in the comments section.

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June 30th – The Busiest Closing Day Ever?

Today is June 30th, 2010 which means that tomorrow is July 1st, 2010 – the day the earth will stand still as the dreaded HST era begins in Ontario.Today is quite possibly the busiest closing day in the history of Toronto.

The last week of June is traditionally the busiest of the year for closings as this marks the official start to summer as well as the end of the school year. People want to be in their new homes for the summer months and parents don’t want to move until their kids are finished school. Over the past several months, a huge percentage of the resale transactions that have taken place have been set to close this week, and in particular this day – June 30th.

There is still a great deal of misinformation about the HST. I had a client ask me just this week who purchased a resale home that is closing in September if they would have to pay HST in addition to the sale price! Can you imagine-adding a surprise 13% to the purchase price of a home! Of course HST does not apply to the sale price of a resale home whatsoever, I reassured my client but it goes to show that the general public does not know how this HST will be affecting them. I suppose like anything, you have to live with it for a while before you can tell what it feels like.

We’ve been hearing about it for months, that there would be a rush to get in before the HST, and it has definitely played out this way. I suspect many lawyers will be taking next week off as just about no one will be doing any closings this week.Now the question is, what happens next? Will the market drop off in July? Probably not. Buyers will keep buying and sellers will keep selling. Questions or comments? Contact me.

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Rental Market Heating Up?

The Globe and Mail had an article last week that suggested that the rental market was heating up as would-be buyers were leaving an overheated condo market in favour of renting. As a result, the rental market is now heating up considerably. The evidence for this hypothesis provided by the author was strictly anecdotal, so I decided to do some investigating on my own to see what was happening in the condo rental market downtown.

I polled some of my colleagues who work rentals at Remax Condos Plus because I rarely get involved with rentals so I am not on top of this market. Unfortunately there wasn’t much consensus. Some agents disagreed with the article completely – they said that supply is higher than ever in the rental market.  When there are over 100 rental units in a single building like Maple Leaf Square, and plenty of other new condos set to come online this year, it’s hard to call it a landlord’s market. However, some agents had stories of bidding wars such as one agent who mentioned they had a few rental listings at CASA (33 Charles) recently and all fetched multiple offers within days of listing for rent.

The fear for investors who are buying units in new developments is will rents continue to rise to catch up with rising property prices downtown? I had one person email me and lament about how Toronto is a lousy place to be a landlord essentially because rents are so ridiculously low compared to other major world cities.

The rental market is one that investors and buyers should keep an eye on as it does affect the condo (sales) market. So I’d like to hear from you: agents who read this blog and also those of you who are looking for rental properties or investors who are trying to rent out their properties at the moment. Would you characterize this market as a tenant’s market or a landlord’s market? What is happening on the street?

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What Happened The Last Time

You know the resale condo market is slowing down when the mainstream media starts writing articles telling us that it is. By the time the MSM gets on the train, it has already left the station and is well on its way to its destination. Reader of this blog and clients of mine have already known that the market has peaked and has been slowing for quite some time already.

On the pre-construction side however, it’s a different story. Buyers and agents are still lining up for the latest and greatest pre-construction launches all over downtown (seems to be one just about every week). Demand is still far outstripping supply with projects like FIVE condos supposedly receiving several hundred worksheets in the first few hours post-launch, and other projects like The Berczy and King Edward Hotel practically selling out overnight.

This is all eerily similar to the pattern we saw the last time the market slowed down. The resale market started to show signs of cracking around June/July 2008, but the pre-construction market kept humming along until the fall of ‘08 when it too was affected. But prices if you recall, did not come down in pre-construction until around the spring of ‘09 when everyone was ‘relaunching’ their projects with reduced pricing and finally the momentum came back.

The resale market is much more sensitive to changes in the overall housing market than the pre-construction side. Individual sellers are much more inclined to reduce prices compared to slow moving developers who don’t do anything without talking about it for at least a month or two. The pre-construction market will slow this year, but developers will probably not notice it until the Fall.

Does this mean it is a bad time to buy pre-construction? Not necessarily. I believe there are good opportunities to buy in any market, you just have to know how to evaluate the opportunities and make smart buying decisions. One project that is a still a great buy for me remains DNA3. Questions or comments? Contact me.

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What Ever Happened to Cash Flow?

Investing in Toronto condos used to be a pretty straightforward proposition: buy a property with as little down as possible then rent it out with the income from the rent covering your mortgage, taxes, maintenance on the property etc. For much of 90s and the first half of the 2000s, this was the way it worked in Toronto and many investors took this approach. Sometime around late 2006 this all changed when property values continued to rise while rental rates began to stagnate and in some cases drop. Positive cash flow with 20-25% down disappeared.

When the market dipped in late 2008-early 2009, prices fell, interest rates fell, and rental rates stayed the same. It was a perfect storm whereby positive cash flow with 25% down reappeared on the Toronto scene, and a few savvy investors noticed this and began to buy once again. The market heated up in mid 2009 and has stayed hot ever since.  Prices rose, and so did interest rates. Today, it’s safe to say that buying a resale condo downtown for more than about $500 per square foot will result in a negative cash flow situation (assuming 25% down). Nobody likes negative cash flow!

The obvious question is how sustainable is a market like this where investors are buying condos by the thousands priced at $600-$800 per square foot that they know for a fact will not generate positive cash flow? So many investors are counting on their properties to appreciate so that they will make a profit. This could very well happen, but by definition this is speculation rather than investing.

I’d like to know what cash flow rates in the larger cities like New York or London are like. Any of my readers with experience in these markets, feel free to comment on how investors approach this issue in one of these cities that Toronto is being compared to more and more often these days.

Questions or comments? I always welcome my readers’ feedback!

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Berczy: Post Mortem

Whenever a development launches in a prime A1 location like The Berczy, it is sure to garner a lot of attention. This is true no matter what the economic climate or how hot the real estate market is. The Berczy had many investors and first time buyers salivating at the prospects of owning in a beautiful building in one of the best spots in the city, but unfortunately many of them went home disappointed after sales started this past weekend. The situation reminds me a lot of a previous post I wrote last year – Prepare to be Disappointed. Some of my observations from the weekend:

• As early as Saturday afternoon I had already received several calls from agents or would-be clients from other Realtors who were lamenting the fact that there were no small suites to buy
• On both sales days – Saturday and Sunday, it seemed there were no small suites available by the time the clock struck 10:30am.
• There seemed to be an allocated amount of suites to each day of sales, so if you had an appointment at 10:00am Sunday you were better off than an appointment at 2:00pm Saturday.
• On Saturday there was a huge crowd of agents outside the sales centre trying to get in without an appointment. Presumably by Sunday they had gotten the message as they were turning people away if they did not have an appointment.
• No detailed price list was ever released so it’s hard to know if the developer was raising prices at the last minute or not since there was nothing to compare the stated prices to.
• The sales reps said they were NOT holding back units for future events
• The rescission rate for this event could be high because buyers were buying 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice of suite since their 1st choice was not available.
• Even the larger 1000 sq ft + suites were selling briskly over the weekend. This suggests that while investors went away disappointed, end-user buyers with means did mostly get what they wanted.
• My clients managed to get a 2 storey unit with 11′ ceilings for $491 per square foot.
• City view suites on higher floors were going into the mid $600s per square foot – still reasonable.
• Kitchen and Bathroom finishes were above average – especially nice were the integrated appliances and forward thinking design colour palattes
• Sales centre and model suite was very well designed and presented.
• Bottom line, this is not an investor-driven building and will likely be a fantastic piece of real estate when it is built in a few years.

Questions about The Berczy? Still want to buy a suite in the building? Contact me for up to date availability and pricing.

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