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Supply and Demand

We are in the middle of a mini-bull market in the resale property market downtown. When TREB released their mid-month statistics last week, many people were surprised that they showed for the first time in a year that prices and sales were actually higher for the city of Toronto than they were a year before. 

Realtors all over the city have known for weeks that a significant change in the market had taken place. After months of growing inventory and stagnant demand, suddenly buyers were everywhere, and now that the dust is starting to settle, there’s no inventory left!

If you are thinking of selling, please do! We need the inventory. I’ve got several clients who are just waiting for the right property to come up. They are ready to buy now, but there is a major shortage of (good) inventory right now. As a result, just about every property that comes up that is priced well and shows well has been receiving multiple offers and bidding wars.

Looking closer at just downtown condos:

• In C01 (downtown west), April saw 290 sales versus 271 in April 2008. Average prices are $329K versus $346K last year. So sales are up 7% but prices are still down about 5% for April. 
• In C08 (downtown east), April sales were 125 versus 84 in ’08. Average prices were $319K versus $355K last year. That translates into a 48% increase in sales and a 10% drop in prices.

The trend that is developing means that I expect sale prices for the month of May (when they come out in a couple weeks) to be close to equal with that of 2008 prices and the number of sales will probably still be about 5-10% over last years numbers.

Is this just a spring boost? Or will this trend continue through the summer and fall? More thoughts on this in a couple weeks once I see the May numbers.

Questions? Comments? You know what to do.

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You Should Have Bought 2 Months Ago

The Toronto condo market is hot right now. No seriously, it is.

After months of writing to my readers about how slow the market has been, there has been a fundamental shift in the marketplace over the past 4 weeks. Multiple offers are back with a vengeance. The best properties are selling over asking and in less than 1 week. Buyers are feeling the pinch and I am starting to get used to the phrase ‘sorry, that property is sold’ when I go to book appointments for my buyer-clients.

The stats for April should be released by the Toronto Real Estate Board any day now, and they will almost certainly reveal that sales are up and prices are up beyond what anyone was anticipating for this month.

Why? What happened? Has Barrack Obama worked some kind of magical spell over our economy? Are things not nearly as bad as everyone thinks they are? Are we all just living in denial and making things worse on ourselves by buying up all this real estate?

My thoughts on what has caused this recent upswing in the market:

1. Affordability. Prices have come down about 10% overall since the peak about a year ago. Interest rates have been basically cut in half since about 18 months ago. 
2. Spring Fever. Every year at this time the market is at its hottest. This is always the busy season, so in that sense this upswing shouldn’t surprise us.
3. Changing Attitudes. Sellers are more realistic on their asking prices, and buyers are more aggressive as many have been waiting to buy for 6 months or more.
4. Canadian Pride. People are starting to see and believe that maybe it’s true – things here in Canada are not nearly as bad as they are in the rest of the world. Where is the best place for your money to be long-term? Many are thinking once again the answer is real estate.
5. The Investor Equation. For the past couple years, it was very difficult to find a cash-flow positive condo in Toronto with 25% down. Now, due to lowered interest rates and lowered prices, with rents staying pretty flat, it is.

All this is leading many people to wonder if the bottom of the market was back in January or February. Certainly there were some great bargains had during those months compared to what we are seeing today.

What are your thoughts? Contact me or leave a comment.

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