I am part of one of the best condo brokerages downtown – Re/Max Condos Plus. Our broker of record is Jamie Johnston. Jamie has been in this business a long time and he’s a very sharp cat. Follow him on Twitter and check out our company blog which Jamie writes. Jamie just put out his latest market forecast and as usual he has some pretty strong opinions. Keep reading after the jump for the full report and let me know what you think in the comments section or send me an email.
Continue reading...4. January 2010
The biggest story in the Toronto condo market over the past 6 months has been the disparity between supply and demand. Simply put, inventory (condos available for sale) is at an all time low, and demand is at an all time high. This has been a recipe for rapid price appreciation, frenzied buying, and sellers very much in control of negotiations.
2010 promises to bring change. Several high-profile condo projects downtown are coming to completion this year and whenever this happens, huge numbers of units are put on the market by investors looking to cash-out their investments.
Specifically over the next few months, buildings that will likely be registering include London on the Esplanade (just registered), Murano (North Tower to be registered this month), VU (Jarvis and Adelaide), 550 Wellington, West Harbour City, Boutique, Glass House, CASA, Bloor Street Neighbourhood, and the list goes on…
Most of these are buildings that were selling during the heady days of 2005-2007 and 2010-2011 will see all of these projects come ‘online’ and they will be added to the inventory for the downtown market.
Buyers should soon be able to breathe a sigh of relief as all this product coming on to the market in time for the spring should make things a little easier on them, however, prices will likely continue to rise as demand will remaind strong for at least the next 2 quarters.
In about six months two key events will take place that will likely shape the real estate market for the following 6-12 months – the Bank of Canada will be raising interest rates, the HST will kick in. There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding these two events, however, many are predicting that they will have a negative impact on prices heading into the final half of 2010. Personally I believe there are too many variables at play to make any accurate predictions of what the market will do beyond the next 6 months.
Thoughts or comments? Leave them below or email me directly.
Continue reading...9. November 2009
If you have been reading this blog and following the Toronto condo market for any length of time you know that sales are up, prices are up and generally everyone is feeling and acting very bullish on the market right now. Traditionally, this time of year is when the market starts to slow down and go into hibernation for the winter. I don’t see that happening anytime soon. If anything, the market is actually gaining momentum going into the winter months.
Some quick thoughts on the resale market:
Some quick thoughts on the new condo market:
Some of you might write this off as more drivel from a real estate agent / blogger-hack who is just doing his part to artificially inflate the market, but my loyal readers know that I tell it like it is. Questions? Thoughts? Leave a comment or contact me direct.
Get the latest info on the Toronto condo market before everyone else. Sign up for our new service and Put Us on Your Radar today!
Continue reading...27. July 2009
The Toronto real estate market has undergone such a massive turnaround over the past 3 months I wouldn’t doubt that we will look back on this as an historic event. I’m not saying things will forever be blue skies and sunshine for Toronto real estate investors and home owners, but its clear that in the past 12 months we have witnessed 2 seismic shifts. The first happened in October 2008 when the market began to free fall, and then the second occurred around May 1st when buyers came out of the woodwork in droves and ate up every available listing in sight, sending prices sky rocketing.
I’ve been talking a lot lately about supply and demand on this blog. The figures are staggering over the past few months. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the analysts and economists to explain what has happened in this city over this relatively short period of time.
Rather than try to add more words to the discussion, I found a great visual display over at guava.ca that illustrates what I’ve been talking about. Take a look through the charts found on this great site and see how the last 12 months compares to activity over the past 5 years. Look at the “V” shape for the total months of inventory. Very revealing.
chart from guava.ca
Continue reading...8. July 2009
The headlines all proclaim that June was the “best month on record“, but if you were a buyer in the month of June, you’d probably disagree. As usual, let’s take a look at the numbers just for downtown condos.
In C01 (downtown west) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:
SALES: 2007 – 336 sales | 2008 – 276 sales | 2009 – 400 sales (up 45% from ‘08 and up 19% from ‘07)
AVG PRICES: 2007 – $315,207 | 2008 – $360,010 | 2009 – $340,895 (down 5% from ‘08, up 8% from ‘07)
MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $281,000 | 2008 – $307,570 | 2009 – $307,500 (flat from ‘08, up 9% from ‘07)
SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 71% | 2008 – 44% | 2009 – 70%
In C08 (downtown east) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:
SALES: 2007 – 123 sales | 2008 – 126 sales | 2009 – 165 sales (up 31% from ‘08 and up 34% from ‘07)
AVG PRICES: 2007 – $309,449 | 2008 – $322,003 | 2009 – $345,465 (down 7% from ‘08, up 12% from ‘07)
MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $271,000 | 2008 – $303,500 | 2009 – $327,000 (up 8% from ‘08, up 21% from ‘07)
SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 90% | 2008 – 57% | 2009 – 88%
Sales are way up over last year and even above where they were in 2007. If you look at the sales:active listing ratios, the numbers are off the charts in favour of seller’s. Supply is just not nearly keeping up with demand.
Median prices for downtown west (where the bulk of condo activity occurs downtown) are basically flat from last year which fits with anecdotal evidence that suggests prices are right back to where they were at the peak of the market.
What does the future hold? I think June will go down as the busiest month of 2009. I think July and August will be very active months, however, heading into the fall market and into the winter I have to believe we have no where to go but down (in terms of number of sales and directional pressure on prices). Things should be improving for buyers soon. Interest rates have gone up substantially of late, and hopefully as some new condo buildings come online over the next few months, we will see a bump in inventory levels.
For additional reading check out “Alarming Inbalance in Toronto’s Real Estate Market“.
Questions? Comments? I’d love to hear from you.
Continue reading...2. June 2009
The Stats are out for the month of May from TREB, and as I predicted in my last post, they show May as being the busiest month of the year so far.
Let’s break down the numbers for downtown condo sales:
In C01 (downtown west), there were 325 sales compared to 302 in May ‘08 which represents an increase in sales of about 8%.
In C08 (downtown east), there were 134 sales this year versus 120 last year (+12%).
Also of note, the Sales:Active Listing ratios for condos for C01 and C08 in May were 48% and 50% respectively. Clearly May was a seller’s market. This is a huge change from just a few months ago when we were seeing Sales:Active ratios in the 13-15% range.
Still that is nothing compared to the absolute frenzy that is happening in some areas of our city like East York, Riverdale, The Danforth, Leslieville, and the Beach. In these areas May had Sales:Active listing ratios in the 70-100% range.
Why the temporary insanity in the market? In my opinion it boils down to one simple reason: Supply and Demand. Supply is way down because seller’s feel a recession is no time to sell, and Demand is up because interest rates are at all-time lows.
Questions? Comments. You know what to do.
Continue reading...5. May 2009
The Toronto condo market is hot right now. No seriously, it is.
After months of writing to my readers about how slow the market has been, there has been a fundamental shift in the marketplace over the past 4 weeks. Multiple offers are back with a vengeance. The best properties are selling over asking and in less than 1 week. Buyers are feeling the pinch and I am starting to get used to the phrase ’sorry, that property is sold’ when I go to book appointments for my buyer-clients.
The stats for April should be released by the Toronto Real Estate Board any day now, and they will almost certainly reveal that sales are up and prices are up beyond what anyone was anticipating for this month.
Why? What happened? Has Barrack Obama worked some kind of magical spell over our economy? Are things not nearly as bad as everyone thinks they are? Are we all just living in denial and making things worse on ourselves by buying up all this real estate?
My thoughts on what has caused this recent upswing in the market:
All this is leading many people to wonder if the bottom of the market was back in January or February. Certainly there were some great bargains had during those months compared to what we are seeing today.
What are your thoughts? Contact me or leave a comment.
Continue reading...20. February 2009
“How’s the market doing?” It’s the classic question that I get asked daily from clients, friends, family, and even strangers. No one wants to know how I’m doing or how the family is, it’s all about THE MARKET!
The current assumption right now is that the market is bad. Really bad. It seems the various headlines in the newspapers and websites talking about the plummeting sales and falling prices have changed the mindset of the population. Just as the mainstream media hyped up the rise of the Toronto Condo market over the past several years, they are now doing their best to broadcast it’s apparent downfall.
There is a perception that sellers are in desperate times, that firesales are happening left and right, and that buyers are getting massive discounts from asking prices. Truth be told, it’s really not that bad.
I’ve been in 4 separate offer situations (on both the buying side and the selling side) in past 10 days where an offer was put in writing but the deal did not happen for the same reason: buyers want a deal and sellers do not want to give them one.
I am not seeing any panic selling. Sellers are for the vast majority, not in any desperate situation where they will sell at any price.
Some may say that sellers are just avoiding reality, that they are still stuck in the past and think they can command any price for their properties. Personally I think that it is just a slow market. There are many properties that will sell after 60 or 90 days on the market and the selling price will be 97-99% of the asking price.
Edit: There are always exceptions to the rule. Since first drafting this post, one of my ‘4′ offers that did not work out, actually did work out. The sellers gave in to my buyers somewhat ridiculous demands and so my buyer-clients are walking away with what I think is a really amazing deal.
Questions? Comments? Contact me or leave me a comment below.
5. January 2010
3 Comments