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Is Toronto Different?

Are we different? This recent piece from MSNBC on the differences between the U.S. and Canadian housing markets once again hits on the big question of why did we not experience the housing market crash that the rest of the world (especially the U.S.) did. Are we fundamentally different and insulated from the U.S. housing market? Even more important – moving forward is the Toronto Condo Market at risk of collapse?

Doomsayers like Garth Turner would say that we are exactly the same as the U.S. in that we have lax lending requirements and our own versions of sub prime lenders, and that we are living way beyond our means. Of course, Garth has been saying this for about 3 years now, and written two books about it, and still we are awaiting the big crash that he says is imminent.

Most bankers and economists would tell you that Canada is different because we are more conservative or something like that.

Both sides of the argument to me sound like a whole lot of cliché and not much analysis of the numbers or reasoning behind their statements. Predicting the real estate market beyond the next quarter or so is always a fools’ game. Look at every long-term prediction that has been made by bankers, Realtor associations (like TREB or CREA), economists, and pundits over the past 5 years. One thing they all have in common is that they were all wrong! The best these so called ‘experts’ can do it seems, is tell you that things will be slightly different next year than they were this year.

There is no debate now that the Toronto condo market is losing steam. Listings are up, sales are slowing, prices are weakening. The inevitable questions are now are will it crash? How long will this ‘down market’ last? Isn’t it our inalienable right as Torontonians to always have an upward moving condo market?? But the biggest question is, where do I put my money as an investor? There are good opportunities in every market, including down markets, in which to invest. I’m investing now, and you should too. Contact me if you’d like to discuss.

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What Happened The Last Time

You know the resale condo market is slowing down when the mainstream media starts writing articles telling us that it is. By the time the MSM gets on the train, it has already left the station and is well on its way to its destination. Reader of this blog and clients of mine have already known that the market has peaked and has been slowing for quite some time already.

On the pre-construction side however, it’s a different story. Buyers and agents are still lining up for the latest and greatest pre-construction launches all over downtown (seems to be one just about every week). Demand is still far outstripping supply with projects like FIVE condos supposedly receiving several hundred worksheets in the first few hours post-launch, and other projects like The Berczy and King Edward Hotel practically selling out overnight.

This is all eerily similar to the pattern we saw the last time the market slowed down. The resale market started to show signs of cracking around June/July 2008, but the pre-construction market kept humming along until the fall of ‘08 when it too was affected. But prices if you recall, did not come down in pre-construction until around the spring of ‘09 when everyone was ‘relaunching’ their projects with reduced pricing and finally the momentum came back.

The resale market is much more sensitive to changes in the overall housing market than the pre-construction side. Individual sellers are much more inclined to reduce prices compared to slow moving developers who don’t do anything without talking about it for at least a month or two. The pre-construction market will slow this year, but developers will probably not notice it until the Fall.

Does this mean it is a bad time to buy pre-construction? Not necessarily. I believe there are good opportunities to buy in any market, you just have to know how to evaluate the opportunities and make smart buying decisions. One project that is a still a great buy for me remains DNA3. Questions or comments? Contact me.

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What Ever Happened to Cash Flow?

Investing in Toronto condos used to be a pretty straightforward proposition: buy a property with as little down as possible then rent it out with the income from the rent covering your mortgage, taxes, maintenance on the property etc. For much of 90s and the first half of the 2000s, this was the way it worked in Toronto and many investors took this approach. Sometime around late 2006 this all changed when property values continued to rise while rental rates began to stagnate and in some cases drop. Positive cash flow with 20-25% down disappeared.

When the market dipped in late 2008-early 2009, prices fell, interest rates fell, and rental rates stayed the same. It was a perfect storm whereby positive cash flow with 25% down reappeared on the Toronto scene, and a few savvy investors noticed this and began to buy once again. The market heated up in mid 2009 and has stayed hot ever since.  Prices rose, and so did interest rates. Today, it’s safe to say that buying a resale condo downtown for more than about $500 per square foot will result in a negative cash flow situation (assuming 25% down). Nobody likes negative cash flow!

The obvious question is how sustainable is a market like this where investors are buying condos by the thousands priced at $600-$800 per square foot that they know for a fact will not generate positive cash flow? So many investors are counting on their properties to appreciate so that they will make a profit. This could very well happen, but by definition this is speculation rather than investing.

I’d like to know what cash flow rates in the larger cities like New York or London are like. Any of my readers with experience in these markets, feel free to comment on how investors approach this issue in one of these cities that Toronto is being compared to more and more often these days.

Questions or comments? I always welcome my readers’ feedback!

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January Market Update from Re/Max Condos Plus

I am part of one of the best condo brokerages downtown – Re/Max Condos Plus. Our broker of record is Jamie Johnston. Jamie has been in this business a long time and he’s a very sharp cat. Follow him on Twitter and check out our company blog which Jamie writes. Jamie just put out his latest market forecast and as usual he has some pretty strong opinions. Keep reading after the jump for the full report and let me know what you think in the comments section or send me an email.

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Inventory Relief Coming Soon

The biggest story in the Toronto condo market over the past 6 months has been the disparity between supply and demand. Simply put, inventory (condos available for sale) is at an all time low, and demand is at an all time high. This has been a recipe for rapid price appreciation, frenzied buying, and sellers very much in control of negotiations.

2010 promises  to bring change. Several high-profile condo projects downtown are coming to completion this year and whenever this happens, huge numbers of units are put on the market by investors looking to cash-out their investments.

Specifically over the next few months, buildings that will likely be registering include London on the Esplanade (just registered), Murano (North Tower to be registered this month), VU (Jarvis and Adelaide), 550 Wellington, West Harbour City, Boutique, Glass House, CASA, Bloor Street Neighbourhood, and the list goes on…

Most of these are buildings that were selling during the heady days of 2005-2007 and 2010-2011 will see all of these projects come ‘online’ and they will be added to the inventory for the downtown market.

Buyers should soon be able to breathe a sigh of relief as all this product coming on to the market in time for the spring should make things a little easier on them, however, prices will likely continue to rise as demand will remaind strong for at least the next 2 quarters.

In about six months two key events will take place that will likely shape the real estate market for the following 6-12 months – the Bank of Canada will be raising interest rates, the HST will kick in.  There is a great deal of uncertainty surrounding these two events, however, many are predicting that they will have a negative impact on prices heading into the final half of 2010. Personally I believe there are too many variables at play to make any accurate predictions of what the market will do beyond the next 6 months.

Thoughts or comments? Leave them below or email me directly.

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Condo Market About to Explode

If you have been reading this blog and following the Toronto condo market for any length of time you know that sales are up, prices are up and generally everyone is feeling and acting very bullish on the market right now. Traditionally, this time of year is when the market starts to slow down and go into hibernation for the winter. I don’t see that happening anytime soon. If anything, the market is actually gaining momentum going into the winter months.

Some quick thoughts on the resale market:

• Inventory levels are still dramatically lower than any other time in the last several years
• Sales are up dramatically over this time last year, but remember that this time last year was when the market began to tank. Still, sales are at all time highs
• Buyers are falling into the trap of over-paying for condos because there is nothing else to choose from on the market when they are buying. Be patient! Keep your head on straight in multiple offer scenarios.
• New pricing precedents are being set in buildings all over downtown as a result of this inventory shortage and buyer behaviour.

Some quick thoughts on the new condo market:

• Over the next 6 months I expect to see at least half a dozen major new condo launches – X2, River City (West Don Lands Phase 1), DNA3, Number One Bloor, ICE 2 (already underway), U Condos Tower 2 (already underway), and more!
• Line ups and camping out for weeks will once again become commonplace as buyers rush in to invest in this next wave of development in Toronto
• Buyers need to keep their heads on and compare existing projects’ remaining inventory with these ‘new’, ‘flavour-of-the-month’ condo projects. Just because it’s new, doesn’t make it better than the building next door that is 90% sold out. BUY VALUE!

Some of you might write this off as more drivel from a real estate agent / blogger-hack who is just doing his part to artificially inflate the market, but my loyal readers know that I tell it like it is. Questions? Thoughts? Leave a comment or contact me direct.

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History In The Making?

The Toronto real estate market has undergone such a massive turnaround over the past 3 months I wouldn’t doubt that we will look back on this as an historic event. I’m not saying things will forever be blue skies and sunshine for Toronto real estate investors and home owners, but its clear that in the past 12 months we have witnessed 2 seismic shifts. The first happened in October 2008 when the market began to free fall, and then the second occurred around May 1st when buyers came out of the woodwork in droves and ate up every available listing in sight, sending prices sky rocketing.

I’ve been talking a lot lately about supply and demand on this blog. The figures are staggering over the past few months. It is becoming increasingly difficult for the analysts and economists to explain what has happened in this city over this relatively short period of time.

Rather than try to add more words to the discussion, I found a great visual display over at guava.ca that illustrates what I’ve been talking about. Take a look through the charts found on this great site and see how the last 12 months compares to activity over the past 5 years. Look at the “V” shape for the total months of inventory. Very revealing.

chart from guava.ca

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Buyers Take a Beating in June

The headlines all proclaim that June was the “best month on record“, but if you were a buyer in the month of June, you’d probably disagree. As usual, let’s take a look at the numbers just for downtown condos.

In C01 (downtown west) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:

SALES: 2007 – 336 sales | 2008 – 276 sales | 2009 – 400 sales (up 45% from ‘08 and up 19% from ‘07)

AVG PRICES: 2007 – $315,207 | 2008 – $360,010 | 2009 – $340,895 (down 5% from ‘08, up 8% from ‘07)

MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $281,000 | 2008 – $307,570 | 2009 – $307,500 (flat from ‘08, up 9% from ‘07)

SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 71% | 2008 – 44% | 2009 – 70%

In C08 (downtown east) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:

SALES: 2007 – 123 sales | 2008 – 126 sales | 2009 – 165 sales (up 31% from ‘08 and up 34% from ‘07)

AVG PRICES: 2007 – $309,449 | 2008 – $322,003 | 2009 – $345,465 (down 7% from ‘08, up 12% from ‘07)

MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $271,000 | 2008 – $303,500 | 2009 – $327,000 (up 8% from ‘08, up 21% from ‘07)

SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 90% | 2008 – 57% | 2009 – 88%

Sales are way up over last year and even above where they were in 2007. If you look at the sales:active listing ratios, the numbers are off the charts in favour of seller’s. Supply is just not nearly keeping up with demand.

Median prices for downtown west (where the bulk of condo activity occurs downtown) are basically flat from last year which fits with anecdotal evidence that suggests prices are right back to where they were at the peak of the market.

What does the future hold? I think June will go down as the busiest month of 2009. I think July and August will be very active months, however, heading into the fall market and into the winter I have to believe we have no where to go but down (in terms of number of sales and directional pressure on prices). Things should be improving for buyers soon. Interest rates have gone up substantially of late, and hopefully as some new condo buildings come online over the next few months, we will see a bump in inventory levels.

For additional reading check out “Alarming Inbalance in Toronto’s Real Estate Market“.

Questions? Comments? I’d love to hear from you.

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May Stats Show Sellers in Control Once Again

The Stats are out for the month of May from TREB, and as I predicted in my last post, they show May as being the busiest month of the year so far.

Let’s break down the numbers for downtown condo sales:

In C01 (downtown west), there were 325 sales compared to 302 in May ‘08 which represents an increase in sales of about 8%.

• Average prices were down from $372K to $327K BUT the median price was only down from $320K to $304K. Clearly the high-end of the condo market has been hit hard over the past year.

In C08 (downtown east), there were 134 sales this year versus 120 last year (+12%).

• Average prices in C08 were $298K versus $314K last year, and median price was $280K versus $293K last year. Again showing the trend that the average price has been hit harder than the median price.

Also of note, the Sales:Active Listing ratios for condos for C01 and C08 in May were 48% and 50% respectively. Clearly May was a seller’s market. This is a huge change from just a few months ago when we were seeing Sales:Active ratios in the 13-15% range.

Still that is nothing compared to the absolute frenzy that is happening in some areas of our city like East York, Riverdale, The Danforth, Leslieville, and the Beach. In these areas May had Sales:Active listing ratios in the 70-100% range.

Why the temporary insanity in the market? In my opinion it boils down to one simple reason: Supply and Demand. Supply is way down because seller’s feel a recession is no time to sell, and Demand is up because interest rates are at all-time lows.

Questions? Comments. You know what to do.

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You Should Have Bought 2 Months Ago

The Toronto condo market is hot right now. No seriously, it is.

After months of writing to my readers about how slow the market has been, there has been a fundamental shift in the marketplace over the past 4 weeks. Multiple offers are back with a vengeance. The best properties are selling over asking and in less than 1 week. Buyers are feeling the pinch and I am starting to get used to the phrase ’sorry, that property is sold’ when I go to book appointments for my buyer-clients.

The stats for April should be released by the Toronto Real Estate Board any day now, and they will almost certainly reveal that sales are up and prices are up beyond what anyone was anticipating for this month.

Why? What happened? Has Barrack Obama worked some kind of magical spell over our economy? Are things not nearly as bad as everyone thinks they are? Are we all just living in denial and making things worse on ourselves by buying up all this real estate?

My thoughts on what has caused this recent upswing in the market:

1. Affordability. Prices have come down about 10% overall since the peak about a year ago. Interest rates have been basically cut in half since about 18 months ago. 
2. Spring Fever. Every year at this time the market is at its hottest. This is always the busy season, so in that sense this upswing shouldn’t surprise us.
3. Changing Attitudes. Sellers are more realistic on their asking prices, and buyers are more aggressive as many have been waiting to buy for 6 months or more.
4. Canadian Pride. People are starting to see and believe that maybe it’s true – things here in Canada are not nearly as bad as they are in the rest of the world. Where is the best place for your money to be long-term? Many are thinking once again the answer is real estate.
5. The Investor Equation. For the past couple years, it was very difficult to find a cash-flow positive condo in Toronto with 25% down. Now, due to lowered interest rates and lowered prices, with rents staying pretty flat, it is.

All this is leading many people to wonder if the bottom of the market was back in January or February. Certainly there were some great bargains had during those months compared to what we are seeing today.

What are your thoughts? Contact me or leave a comment.

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