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Buyers Take a Beating in June

The headlines all proclaim that June was the “best month on record“, but if you were a buyer in the month of June, you’d probably disagree. As usual, let’s take a look at the numbers just for downtown condos.

In C01 (downtown west) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:

SALES: 2007 – 336 sales | 2008 – 276 sales | 2009 – 400 sales (up 45% from ‘08 and up 19% from ‘07)

AVG PRICES: 2007 – $315,207 | 2008 – $360,010 | 2009 – $340,895 (down 5% from ‘08, up 8% from ‘07)

MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $281,000 | 2008 – $307,570 | 2009 – $307,500 (flat from ‘08, up 9% from ‘07)

SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 71% | 2008 – 44% | 2009 – 70%

In C08 (downtown east) let’s compare the June numbers from the past 3 years:

SALES: 2007 – 123 sales | 2008 – 126 sales | 2009 – 165 sales (up 31% from ‘08 and up 34% from ‘07)

AVG PRICES: 2007 – $309,449 | 2008 – $322,003 | 2009 – $345,465 (down 7% from ‘08, up 12% from ‘07)

MEDIAN PRICES: 2007 – $271,000 | 2008 – $303,500 | 2009 – $327,000 (up 8% from ‘08, up 21% from ‘07)

SALES:ACTIVE LISTING RATIO: 2007 – 90% | 2008 – 57% | 2009 – 88%

Sales are way up over last year and even above where they were in 2007. If you look at the sales:active listing ratios, the numbers are off the charts in favour of seller’s. Supply is just not nearly keeping up with demand.

Median prices for downtown west (where the bulk of condo activity occurs downtown) are basically flat from last year which fits with anecdotal evidence that suggests prices are right back to where they were at the peak of the market.

What does the future hold? I think June will go down as the busiest month of 2009. I think July and August will be very active months, however, heading into the fall market and into the winter I have to believe we have no where to go but down (in terms of number of sales and directional pressure on prices). Things should be improving for buyers soon. Interest rates have gone up substantially of late, and hopefully as some new condo buildings come online over the next few months, we will see a bump in inventory levels.

For additional reading check out “Alarming Inbalance in Toronto’s Real Estate Market“.

Questions? Comments? I’d love to hear from you.

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May Stats Show Sellers in Control Once Again

The Stats are out for the month of May from TREB, and as I predicted in my last post, they show May as being the busiest month of the year so far.

Let’s break down the numbers for downtown condo sales:

In C01 (downtown west), there were 325 sales compared to 302 in May ‘08 which represents an increase in sales of about 8%.

• Average prices were down from $372K to $327K BUT the median price was only down from $320K to $304K. Clearly the high-end of the condo market has been hit hard over the past year.

In C08 (downtown east), there were 134 sales this year versus 120 last year (+12%).

• Average prices in C08 were $298K versus $314K last year, and median price was $280K versus $293K last year. Again showing the trend that the average price has been hit harder than the median price.

Also of note, the Sales:Active Listing ratios for condos for C01 and C08 in May were 48% and 50% respectively. Clearly May was a seller’s market. This is a huge change from just a few months ago when we were seeing Sales:Active ratios in the 13-15% range.

Still that is nothing compared to the absolute frenzy that is happening in some areas of our city like East York, Riverdale, The Danforth, Leslieville, and the Beach. In these areas May had Sales:Active listing ratios in the 70-100% range.

Why the temporary insanity in the market? In my opinion it boils down to one simple reason: Supply and Demand. Supply is way down because seller’s feel a recession is no time to sell, and Demand is up because interest rates are at all-time lows.

Questions? Comments. You know what to do.

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Signs of Life? February Condo Market Stats Have a Pulse

It’s that time of the month again, TREB just released their stats for February. The numbers aren’t as painful to look at as in the previous few months, but does this mean we are on the way to recovery?

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2009 Begins As a Buyer’s Market

TREB has their January stats up for resale properties. Looking at the numbers for downtown condos it is now very clear: we are in a serious buyer’s market. 

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Sales Down. Prices Down. Inventory Up & Down?

Finally the numbers are in. TREB took a lot longer than usual to release the final sales numbers for the month of December, maybe because they were so painful to look at they had to double check them several times, hoping they would magically improve themselves. Here are all the gory details.

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New Condo Sales for November 2008

Today I want to share with my readers a press release from BILD – Building Industry & Land Development Association. 

They just released their sales statistics for new homes and condos sold in November. For Toronto, 789 high rise condos were sold. At first glance this number sounds pretty high, but when you hear that in November of 2007 1922 new condos were sold in Toronto, this means that sales this November were down 59% versus last November. This is very consistent with the numbers for November’s resale market, where downtown west condo sales were down 61% and downtown east 51%.

We have surpassed the 15,000 mark for condos sold in the GTA for 2008 so far. We will likely end up with about 15,500 condos sold in 2008, which is far off of 2007’s record pace of 22,000, but pretty much dead-on with previous predictions from new development tracking company, Urbanation, who was calling for around 16,000.

Click here for the full press release, or continue reading.

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Tipping Point? Downtown Condo Prices Fall, Inventory Soars

The numbers are in for November and it isn’t pretty.  TREB just released their sales figures for the month of November and unlike last month, we can now say that for the resale downtown condo market, prices have fallen.  Let’s just get right into the numbers.

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Is the Toronto Condo Market Crashing?

We are in the midst of a global financial crisis. People are naturally concerned about their jobs, their finances, their investments, and of course – REAL ESTATE. I am getting asked constantly by friends, family, and clients:

How is the market? Are prices coming down? Is the Condo Market Crashing?

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